Bitcoin News Today: Cardano's Risk Score Nears Threshold—When Will Bulls Flip to Caution?

Cardano (ADA) has recently held key support levels amid broader uncertainty in the crypto market, particularly as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delays its decision on several pending exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. This regulatory hesitation is amplifying volatility in the market, with crypto investors and analysts closely watching for signals that could shape the next phase of ADA’s price trajectory.

Dan Gambardello, a prominent crypto analyst and long-term Cardano supporter, has outlined a strategic approach to navigating the current market phase. He emphasized a “risk score” system as a tool to determine exit points for ADA investors. This score, which ranges from 0 to 100, classifies risk levels as moderate (25–50), high (50–75), and extreme (75–100). Gambardello highlighted that Cardano currently sits at a risk score of 36, which he labels as a “moderate buy,” indicating that ADA is still in a pre-bull phase. However, he warned that the market can move swiftly into higher risk levels, as demonstrated in previous cycles where Cardano jumped from 34 to 76 in a matter of weeks, coinciding with a sharp price increase from $0.09 to $0.59.

Grayscale Investments has added to the momentum, filing S-1 registration forms for spot ETFs for both Polkadot and Cardano with the SEC. The Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF, which would trade under the ticker GADA on the NYSE Arca, is part of a larger wave of altcoin ETF applications currently under review. The market has responded with heightened optimism, as prediction markets suggest increasing approval odds for altcoin ETFs, including Cardano. This regulatory development could influence institutional investor interest in ADA, potentially boosting demand and liquidity in the broader market.

Despite the bullish signals, Gambardello cautioned that investors should remain disciplined and plan their exits in advance. He noted that for long-term holders, the $1 to $3 price range is already an attractive opportunity to take profits, particularly given the time many ADA investors have spent accumulating at lower levels. Once Cardano breaches its 2021 high of $3.10, Gambardello said he will closely monitor how the price interacts with the risk score. A score nearing 75, he warned, would be a strong signal to begin aggressive selling, as historical data suggests ADA rarely sustains momentum in such high-risk environments.

Meanwhile, the regulatory landscape remains a key variable. Grayscale’s filing explicitly acknowledges the risk that ADA could still be classified as a security by the SEC, which could have material consequences for the ETF and Cardano’s broader market dynamics. The firm has also outlined operational constraints, including the absence of in-kind transactions and the reliance on CoinDesk price indices for valuation purposes. These factors introduce additional uncertainties into the investment thesis for the Cardano ETF.

In sum, the interplay between market sentiment, strategic planning, and regulatory developments is shaping the immediate outlook for Cardano. With key support levels intact and the SEC’s decision looming, the next few weeks could be pivotal for ADA’s price action and investor sentiment in the broader altcoin space.

Source: [1] Cardano Bull Reveals When He'll Start Selling His ADA Bag (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/09/05/cardano-bull-reveals-when-hell-start-selling-his-ada-bag/) [2] Grayscale Submits Polkadot and Cardano ETF Registration (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/grayscale-submits-polkadot-cardano-etf-140711224.html) [3] ADA to BTC: Cardano Price in Bitcoin (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/cardano/btc)