Bitcoin News Today: Capitulation Deepens: Will Bitcoin's Buyers Emerge?

Bitcoin Realized Losses Rise to FTX Crash Levels: Where Is the Bottom?

Bitcoin's price correction has intensified, with the cryptocurrency now trading below the 2025 realized price of $103,227, leaving the average 2025 buyer at a 13% loss. The $91,439.16 mark as of November 18, 2025, reflects a 30% decline from its October all-time high of $126,250 and marks November as the joint-worst month of 2025 and the weakest since June 2022. This selloff mirrors the April 2025 correction, which saw prices fall from $109,000 to $76,000 over 80 days, though the current drawdown-43 days in duration-is half as long.

On-chain data underscores a deepening capitulation among short-term holders (STHs), with the STH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) plummeting to 0.97, a level historically associated with market turning points. Over 65,200 BTC has been sent to exchanges at a loss, signaling widespread panic selling. Analysts note this pattern aligns with late-stage bear market dynamics, where weak hands exhaust their supply, potentially paving the way for a reversal.

The turmoil has also exposed vulnerabilities in the broader crypto ecosystem. KindlyMD, a Bitcoin treasury firm, reported a $1.4 million realized loss on digital assets and a $59 million loss from its Nakamoto merger, contributing to a 95% decline in its stock price over six months. Meanwhile, American Bitcoin (ABTC) faces cash-burning operations, with $43 million in negative cash flow from operations and a $2-per-share valuation tied to its 4,004 BTC holdings.

Amid the chaos, prominent strategist Tom Lee has maintained a bullish outlook. Despite attributing Bitcoin's $83,000 drop to a "mechanical glitch" in a stablecoin pricing feed during the October 10 crash, Lee predicts the cryptocurrency could close 2025 at $150,000–$200,000. He argues that strained market maker liquidity has been damaged by the October liquidation shock, has exacerbated the downturn.

New projects are emerging to navigate the volatility. Bitcoin Munari (BTCM), a Solana SPL token with a fixed supply of 21 million, outlined a roadmap for a 2027 Layer 1 blockchain featuring EVM-compatible smart contracts and user-configurable privacy. The project's presale, with 53% of tokens allocated to public rounds, aims to balance Bitcoin's scarcity with modern infrastructure.

The market's technical indicators paint a mixed picture. Bitcoin's RSI of 24 and MACD in negative territory suggest oversold conditions, while wave analysis hints at further declines toward $80,562. However, historical patterns show that STH capitulation often precedes buying opportunities, with long-term holders (LTHs) stepping in to accumulate at discounted prices.

As the crypto community braces for more turbulence, the interplay between structural challenges, market psychology, and innovative projects will likely define the path forward.