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Bitcoin closed the week at $115,128 after a sharp selloff on Friday, which saw prices dip to a low of $105,617 amid heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The decline, triggered by concerns over potential tariffs and geopolitical volatility, led to over $3.32 billion in leveraged position liquidations within an hour. Despite a partial rebound, bears remain in control as prices hover below the critical $118,350 resistance level, a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the recent $126,219 high to $105,617 low [1].
The $105,000 support level proved pivotal in curbing further losses, though analysts warn that a breakdown below this threshold could signal the end of the current bull market. Technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), remain bearish, with oscillators suggesting continued downward pressure unless prices stabilize above $110,500 [1]. Fibonacci retracement levels highlight key psychological zones: bulls aim to reclaim $118,350, while a push above $121,800 (0.786 retracement) could open the door to new highs [1].

Institutional demand, however, provided a counterbalance. ETF inflows into
exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaled $5.95 billion in early October, with $3.55 billion directed to Bitcoin-specific funds. This surge, coupled with weak U.S. dollar performance and macroeconomic uncertainty, sustained long-term bullish momentum [3]. Notably, MARA Holdings recently added 400 BTC ($46.3 million) to its holdings, pushing its total to 52,850 BTC ($6.12 billion), underscoring institutional confidence .Market participants remain divided. Bulls highlight ETF-driven demand and strategic buying near $105K–$107K as catalysts for a rebound, while bears caution that structural liquidity issues and leveraged short positions could amplify volatility. The broader cryptocurrency market, with a $2.2 trillion market cap, saw $61 billion in 24-hour losses following the selloff, though stablecoin dominance spiked to 4.7%, indicating short-term capital reallocation rather than systemic panic .
Looking ahead, the coming weeks will test Bitcoin's resilience. A sustained break above $118,350 could shift short-term bias to bullish, but a failure to hold above $110,500 risks reigniting selling. On-chain metrics, including low exchange reserves and persistent accumulation by large wallets, suggest long-term holders remain unconcerned with near-term dips [3]. However, regulatory shifts, trade policy surprises, or renewed macroeconomic stress could disrupt the current equilibrium [3].
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