Bitcoin News Today: Bullish Tech vs. Hawkish Fed: Bitcoin's Breakout Delayed by Macro Woes

Bitcoin's price continues to trade below $111,000 despite technical indicators suggesting bullish potential, as macroeconomic headwinds and institutional caution offset optimism from recent U.S.-China trade developments. The cryptocurrency's correction has deepened amid the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, prolonged U.S. government shutdown, and shifting institutional flows, raising questions about the timing of a sustained breakout, according to an FXStreet forecast.

The Fed's resistance to aggressive rate cuts has reinforced the U.S. dollar's strength, indirectly pressuring Bitcoin. After a 25-basis-point reduction in October, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled no immediate action for December, contradicting market expectations. This stance has kept USD resilient, dampening risk-on sentiment and weighing on cryptocurrencies, which historically move inversely to the greenback, the FXStreet report said. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown entering its fourth week has exacerbated economic uncertainty, further cooling appetite for volatile assets like Bitcoin.

Diplomatic efforts between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping introduced a glimmer of optimism, with China resuming soybean purchases and resolving rare-earth disputes. However, the positive narrative failed to translate into a meaningful price rebound. Bitcoin closed below a critical ascending trendline on Wednesday, declining 4% to $107,925 at the time of writing, and market participants remain skeptical, as broader economic risks—such as potential rate hikes and geopolitical tensions—continue to dominate investor sentiment, according to a Coinpedia analysis.

Institutional demand has also shown early signs of strain. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $470.71 million outflow on Wednesday, ending a four-day inflow streak and marking the largest outflow since October 16, the FXStreet report added. This trend, if sustained, could prolong Bitcoin's correction and delay a potential rally. The mixed signals highlight a tug-of-war between short-term macro risks and long-term bullish fundamentals, such as the Fed's eventual dovish pivot and improved global trade relations.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin faces a critical juncture. While technical indicators like the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level suggest a potential rebound, institutional flows and central bank policy will likely dictate the next major price movement. Strategy, a Bitcoin-focused investment firm, has publicly targeted a year-end 2025 price of $150,000, assuming favorable macroeconomic conditions and disciplined capital allocation, according to Strategy's financial release. However, with the Fed's hawkish stance and geopolitical uncertainties unresolved, the path to that target remains uncertain.