Bitcoin News Today: Bullish Fed Outlook Boosts Assets, But Trump Policies Spark Analyst Caution

The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut has ignited renewed optimism across financial markets, with cryptocurrency and equities both positioning for a year-end rally. Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC on October 25, according to CoinDesk, that the S&P 500 could climb 4%–10% by year-end 2025, surpassing 7,000, driven by Fed easing and persistent investor skepticism. Simultaneously, he highlighted a potential crypto rebound, citing record-low open interest and improving technical indicators as catalysts for a late-year surge in digital assets.

However, not all analysts share this bullish outlook. J.P. Morgan strategists, including Karen Ward, a chief market strategist for asset management, warned that the Fed may pause rate cuts after December to assess the economic impact of Donald Trump's policies. Ward noted that while the Fed has already cut rates twice in 2025, its cautious stance—emphasized by Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks on strong economic data—could delay further action in 2025. This divergence from Wall Street's broader expectations underscores uncertainty about how fiscal expansion and inflation risks might interact with monetary policy, Moomoo reported.

Meanwhile, the crypto market has already priced in much of the Fed's expected easing. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) recently traded near $114,600, rebounding from a mid-October slump amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions and massive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts attribute the $10,000 recovery to institutional demand, with ETFs attracting $3.5 billion in new capital this month alone. The inflows have pushed institutional ownership to 12% of total Bitcoin supply, a historic high. "Crypto's transformation into a macro-sensitive asset is accelerating," said a report from Investing.com, noting that a 0.25% rate cut could further bolster liquidity for high-risk assets.

Binance's Changpeng Zhao (CZ) added to the optimism after receiving a presidential pardon from Trump. In a post on X, CZ declared that cryptocurrency would "make a lot of money for the country," aligning with Trump's executive order to position the U.S. as a crypto capital, Benzinga reported. This sentiment is echoed in global equity markets, where funds attracted $11.03 billion in net inflows this week, driven by easing inflation and trade deal hopes, Coinotag noted. Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets has strengthened, with the cryptocurrency benefiting from broader market optimism.

Despite the positive momentum, volatility remains a risk. The September rate cut triggered a $60 billion liquidation event in crypto, a cautionary sign for traders. J.P. Morgan's David Kelly warned that Trump's aggressive tariff policies could clash with the Fed's inflation-fighting goals, creating potential friction. For now, however, the combination of Fed easing, geopolitical stability, and institutional adoption appears to be fueling a synchronized rally across asset classes, as Moomoo noted earlier and in a Coinpedia analysis.