Bitcoin News Today: The Bull Market's Fate Hinges on Bitcoin's $100K Psychological Battle

Bitcoin’s price action has drawn significant attention as it grapples with critical support levels that could determine the trajectory of its current bull market. According to several analysts, the $100,000 mark represents a crucial psychological and technical threshold. If Bitcoin (BTC) were to fall below this level, it could signal the end of the ongoing bull cycle, with further declines expected to test the $104,000 support zone or the 200-day moving average [1].

Technical indicators paint a mixed but largely bearish picture. The daily and 4-hour charts reveal that BTC has broken beneath a major descending channel and the $110K support level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) now trading below 50—indicating that bearish momentum is currently dominant [1]. On the 4-hour chart, BTC has formed consistent lower highs and lows within a descending channel, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias [2]. The RSI on this timeframe, however, has shown signs of a potential bullish divergence, offering cautious optimism to some traders [1].

Onchain metrics also provide insights into the broader market dynamics. Exchange reserves for Bitcoin have been declining since the beginning of 2024, suggesting that investors and institutions are moving their holdings to cold storage. This trend indicates a tighter supply of BTC available for immediate trading, which could support prices in the long run if demand remains steady or increases. However, it does not mitigate the risk of short-term corrections, especially in the event of weakening demand or adverse macroeconomic conditions [2].

Market sentiment is further influenced by upcoming U.S. economic data, which could impact liquidity and, by extension, Bitcoin’s price. The JOLTS report, ADP employment data, initial jobless claims, and the nonfarm payrolls report are expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. A resilient labor market would likely keep interest rates elevated, supporting the U.S. dollar and capping Bitcoin’s upside. Conversely, weaker data could ease inflationary pressures and encourage a dovish pivot, potentially boosting risk-on assets like crypto [4]. Analysts have noted that softer labor data could drive risk-on flows toward alternatives like Bitcoin, but such outcomes could also be accompanied by short-term volatility amid recession concerns [4].

Looking at wave and Fibonacci analysis, some traders believe BTC is nearing the end of a corrective phase, with a potential bottom forming around $104,000. Wave count projections suggest that BTC may be in the final leg of a W-X-Y correction, with targets near $104,600 and $103,600 [3]. If confirmed, this could mark a turning point in the short-term trajectory of BTC, especially if the price finds support within the established descending channel [3].

Despite the bearish technical setup, some traders remain cautiously optimistic, pointing to RSI bullish divergences on shorter timeframes as potential signs of a near-term rebound. Traders such as ZYN and Michaël van de Poppe suggest that the $100,000 to $104,000 range is a strategic accumulation zone, with the potential for a new all-time high in the coming weeks if the support holds [1]. However, the broader trend remains a bearish correction, with momentum indicators like the MACD showing bearish divergences that favor further downside in the near term [3].

As the market awaits key macroeconomic data and potential policy shifts, Bitcoin remains in a state of flux. The outcome of these developments will be critical in determining whether the current pullback is a temporary correction or the beginning of a more extended bearish phase. For now, the focus remains on the $100,000 level—seen as a symbolic and technical linchpin for the ongoing bull market [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin bull market will be 'over' if $100K BTC price is lost (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-market-over-if-100k-is-lost-trader)

[2] Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is BTC Set to Break Down Below ... (https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-price-analysis-is-btc-set-to-break-down-below-100k/)

[3] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Slides to 2-Month Low But the Sell-Off ... (https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/bitcoin-btc-price-low-sell-off/)

[4] 4 US Economic Events with Crypto Implications This Week (https://beincrypto.com/us-economic-data-crypto-implications/)