Bitcoin News Today: Bull Case Holds, Bear Indicators Warn: Bitcoin's Tug-of-War Intensifies

Bitcoin's recent price correction from an all-time high of $123,000 to approximately $118,000 has sparked debate among analysts about the cryptocurrency's near-term trajectory. The drop, which occurred in late July 2025, follows a period of consolidation between $116,500 and $120,000, with market participants closely watching key support levels. While some experts argue the bull market remains intact, others warn of deeper corrections, citing diverging technical indicators and macroeconomic factors‘This isn’t a top’: Here’s why Bitcoin analysts say BTC will break …^[1]Bitfinex x CryptoQuant: Will BTC Surge to $123K or Drop to $110K …^[2].

Analysts from Bitcoin Vector and Swissblock emphasize that Bitcoin's fundamentals remain robust despite the pullback. The Bitcoin Fundamental Index (BFI) continues to reflect strong network growth and liquidity, with on-chain metrics suggesting no signs of overheating. Short-term holder (STH) cost basis data, which tracks the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, has not entered the "overheated" zone, indicating room for further price expansion before panic selling emerges‘This isn’t a top’: Here’s why Bitcoin analysts say BTC will break …^[1]. CoinGlass' 30-bull market peak indicators also show no active signals, with long-term metrics like the Pi Cycle Top and MVRV ratio remaining neutral‘This isn’t a top’: Here’s why Bitcoin analysts say BTC will break …^[1].

However, bearish voices highlight structural risks. Bitcoin's failure to break above $123,000 has triggered RSI divergence on weekly charts, a classic precursor to deeper correctionsBitcoin traders warn $123K was a top: How low can BTC price go?^[5]. A breakdown below $115,000 could test support at $104,000 or even $92,000, aligning with historical patterns observed in prior cyclesBitcoin traders warn $123K was a top: How low can BTC price go?^[5]. On-chain data from Glassnode reveals rising Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metrics, with over 92% of Bitcoin supply currently in profit, signaling potential sell-side pressureBitcoin traders warn $123K was a top: How low can BTC price go?^[5].

The debate over Bitcoin's future is further complicated by macroeconomic shifts. JPMorgan analysts argue that Bitcoin's role as a "debasement hedge" against inflation and fiat currency erosion has gained mainstream traction, with institutional inflows into ETFs and futures markets reinforcing its appealBitcoin ‘debasement trade’ is here to stay: JPMorgan^[6]. The bank estimates Bitcoin could rise to $165,000 on a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold, citing growing demand from both retail and institutional investorsBitcoin could reach $165K based on gold’s record run: JPMorgan^[7]. Meanwhile, Bitfinex forecasts a $123,000 target by late 2025, driven by spot ETF demand and macroeconomic stability, while CryptoQuant flags miner sell-offs and rising exchange reserves as bearish risksBitfinex x CryptoQuant: Will BTC Surge to $123K or Drop to $110K …^[2].

Technical scenarios outline three potential paths: a bullish continuation above $123,000 could target $128,000–$130,000; consolidation between $115,000 and $123,000 remains likely if volume remains muted; and a breakdown below $115,000 could push Bitcoin toward $107,218 or $98,132Bitcoin (BTC) Hits $123K, Drops 6%: 2025 Market Analysis - Phemex^[4]. Short-term holders have been accumulating, with Glassnode data showing a 9.9% increase in holdings since June 2025, suggesting renewed buyer interest during dips.

The broader market context includes a potential shift in Bitcoin's traditional four-year price cycle. Historically tied to halving events, the cycle has shown signs of disruption due to factors like ETF inflows, institutional adoption, and regulatory clarityBitcoin (BTC) price cycle might be breaking - CNBC^[3]. Bitwise's Matthew Hougan argues the cycle is effectively over, with Bitcoin's performance now more correlated with macroeconomic trends than its historical cadenceBitcoin (BTC) price cycle might be breaking - CNBC^[3].

In conclusion, Bitcoin's price action reflects a tug-of-war between bullish fundamentals and bearish technical signals. While institutional demand and the debasement trade narrative support long-term optimism, near-term volatility and diverging indicators suggest a cautious approach. Market participants will closely monitor key levels, including $115,000 and $123,000, as well as macroeconomic developments, to gauge the next phase of the cycle.