Bitcoin News Today: BTC's Tug-of-War: $115K Could Spark Bull Run or Force Retreat

Bitcoin's price action remains in a critical consolidation phase, bounded by its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, as traders await a decisive breakout that could propel the asset toward a new all-time high. On the daily chart, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $110,000, with the 200-day MA at $109K acting as support and the 100-day MA around $115K serving as immediate resistance, according to a TradingView report. A sustained close above $115K—where institutional supply zones overlap—could trigger a retest of the $120K–$122K liquidity pocket and eventually challenge the $126K ATH, per a CryptoPotato analysis. Conversely, a breakdown below the 100-day MA may force a pullback toward the $108K accumulation zone, a key demand area for recent rebounds, the TradingView report noted.

Technical indicators suggest the market is entering a pivotal decision phase. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, a classic precursor to strong directional moves, as the TradingView piece observed. Momentum remains fragile but constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 45 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 26.8, signaling a strengthening trend without overbought conditions, according to a TradingNews forecast. Institutional analysts, including VanEck, describe the recent 18% pullback from October highs as a "mid-cycle reset," noting that leverage has normalized and on-chain activity remains robust, the TradingNews analysis added.

The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) rose 0.89% to $111,849 on October 21, marking four consecutive days of gains amid a 2.23% monthly decline, per a Morningstar report. This resilience contrasts with the fading "Uptober" momentum, as Bitcoin struggles to hold above $108K amid compression between the 200-day SMA ($107,846) and 365-day SMA ($100,367), according to a CoinDesk piece. Key psychological and structural levels include $100,000 (a long-term floor), $103,509 (2025 investor cost basis), and $112,100 (short-term cost basis), the CoinDesk article noted.

Institutional positioning remains bullish despite near-term volatility. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick predicts a temporary dip below $100,000 but maintains a $200,000 year-end target, citing gold-to-Bitcoin capital rotations and central bank reserve diversification, the TradingNews report observed. VanEck's ChainCheck report emphasizes Bitcoin's role as an "anti–money printing" asset, with M2 liquidity still explaining over half its price variance. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs added $1.7 billion in inflows over two weeks, reflecting growing institutional adoption, the TradingNews piece added.

However, existential risks linger. Quantum computing advancements pose a theoretical threat to Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography, with experts warning that 2,300 logical qubits could crack private keys within 2–8 years, the TradingNews analysis warned. While no immediate danger exists, the debate is reshaping long-term valuation models and institutional hedging strategies.

On-chain data further underscores the market's precarious balance. The Realized Price of mid-term holders (3–6 month cohort) at $109K has become a pivotal support/resistance level, with Bitcoin's rebound from $102K pushing it into slight profit territory for this group, the CryptoPotato article noted. A confirmed breakout above $114K could reignite bullish momentum, while failure to hold this level may invite renewed selling pressure.

With liquidity compression and macro uncertainty persisting, the coming weeks will test Bitcoin's ability to reclaim key psychological thresholds. For now, the $108K–$115K range remains the focal point, with institutional confidence and macro trends suggesting a higher probability of a bullish resolution.