Bitcoin News Today: BTC Hovers Near $119,000 as Exchange Reserves Drop to 2.384M, Liquidation Clusters and Positive Funding Rates Signal Possible Breakout

Bitcoin’s price has remained range-bound near $119,000 for several days, with less than 1% movement in the past 24 hours, signaling a potential prelude to a breakout. Despite the apparent calm, underlying metrics such as exchange reserves, liquidation clusters, funding rates, and on-chain indicators suggest mounting pressure for a directional move. Analysts and market observers are closely monitoring these factors to gauge whether BTC will resume its bullish trajectory or face renewed bearish challenges [1].

Exchange reserves have fallen to a monthly low of 2.384 million BTC, a historically bullish sign that reflects reduced short-term selling pressure. This trend contrasts with the mid-July period, when reserves above 2.5 million BTC coincided with a 5% price drop. Lower reserves indicate fewer coins are available for immediate trading, potentially supporting a price surge if demand increases, particularly from spot buyers [1].

Liquidation zones are concentrated between $118,000 and $121,000, where heavy clusters of long and short positions create a balance that keeps BTC price stagnant. A breakout above $120,500 could trigger a short squeeze, with over $300 million in shorts at risk of liquidation, potentially pushing prices toward $124,000–$127,000. Conversely, a dip below $116,000 might activate long liquidations, dragging the price down to $114,000. This equilibrium explains the current sideways movement [2].

Funding rates for BTC futures are currently at +0.0104%, reflecting a slight tilt toward long positions and a cautious bullish bias. Open interest remains stable, indicating sustained trader participation but limited aggressive positioning. This dynamic mirrors the early July rally, when a sharp rise in funding rates preceded a 6% weekly price gain. A renewed spike in funding rates could signal renewed upward momentum [2].

On-chain metrics, including the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), remain neutral at 1.0105, suggesting holders are not actively taking profits. This contrasts with March’s SOPR spike above 1.2, which preceded a price peak at $99,000 and a subsequent correction. The current SOPR level implies patience among holders, who may be willing to ride higher prices if resistance levels break [1].

Technical analysis highlights $120,666 as a critical resistance level, aligned with the Fib 0.236 level. A clean break above this threshold could target $124,339 (Fib 0.382) and eventually $127,300 (Fib 0.5), reopening the path to Bitcoin’s all-time high of $139,886. However, failure to break this week might prolong the consolidation phase, with a potential pullback toward $115,000. Recent shallow corrections suggest increasing buyer participation, raising expectations for a breakout [1].

While the market appears quiet, the combination of low reserves, balanced liquidation zones, cautious bullish funding, and neutral SOPR data points to a high probability of a move. Traders are waiting for a catalyst to trigger the next phase, whether upward toward a new all-time high or downward into a tighter range. The coming days will likely determine Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory [1].

Sources:

[1] https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688840254b2f3f471eb4917e/

[2] https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688840254b2f3f471eb4917e/