Bitcoin News Today: BlackRock's IBIT Posts 5-Week Outflow as Bitcoin ETF Pressures Mount

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is experiencing a record outflow of investor funds, with over $2.7 billion leaving the ETF in five consecutive weeks. The sustained withdrawals have triggered growing concerns about the fund's technical structure and its broader impact on Bitcoin's institutional support. Market analysts and blockchain firms are closely monitoring whether this trend signals a deeper correction or a temporary pause in the bullish momentum.

The pullback has occurred amid a broader Bitcoin market downturn, with the digital asset's value plummeting in October as $1 trillion was erased from the crypto market. This has led to a shift in market dynamics, as the inflow regime that had supported Bitcoin earlier in the year appears to be fading. Glassnode, a blockchain analytics firm, noted that the transition from strong inflow to outflow could be a clear signal of changing investor sentiment.

For BlackRock, the ETF's struggles are a significant concern. The iShares Bitcoin Trust holds over $71 billion in assets, making it a primary vehicle for institutional exposure to Bitcoin. As withdrawals continue, the fund's role as a macro advantage for Bitcoin's price movement is increasingly under question. The recent outflows are the longest stretch of redemptions since the fund's launch in January 2024.

Why the Standoff Happened

IBIT's technical indicators have worsened as the fund's price slipped below a rising trendline that had supported the ETF for most of the year. The breakdown has turned former support into resistance and left the ETF trading below key exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 20-day EMA near $53.3 is currently the first major barrier for a potential rebound. Failure to close above this level will likely keep downward momentum intact.

The ETF's recent rebound to $52–$53 is seen as a temporary oversold reaction rather than a confirmed reversal. The $47–$48 region has provided temporary support, but further weakness could expose IBIT to a broader support range near $44–$45.

Meanwhile, the RSI remains below 50, reinforcing the weak upside momentum.

BlackRock's stock (BLK) has also been affected by the ETF's struggles. Shares have bounced from October lows near $986 but now face key Fibonacci resistance levels. The $1,073–$1,075 area is the first major hurdle, with a larger resistance cluster between $1,100 and $1,127. Clearing these levels would require strong buying conviction and may signal a more durable trend shift.

What Analysts Are Watching

Despite the technical headwinds, Tom Lee, a prominent bull on Bitcoin, remains optimistic about the long-term price trajectory of the digital asset. He continues to predict that Bitcoin will end the year above $100,000 and even hints at the possibility of a new high before the calendar flips to a new year. Lee views the current market correction as a shakeout of weaker investors rather than a fundamental breakdown.

Lee's bullish stance is shared by some market analysts who believe that the recent volatility is part of a larger pattern. For instance, at Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Lee argued that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 next year and that Ethereum could see a surge to $62,000. He attributed these predictions to the growing tokenization of securities on Wall Street and the increasing adoption of Ethereum as a financial infrastructure platform.

The market is also closely watching for any signs of capitulation among whale investors, which Lee has cited as a key signal of a market bottom. BitMine, the firm co-founded by Lee, has recently purchased significant amounts of Ethereum, signaling confidence in its long-term potential.

Risks to the Outlook

While Lee and others remain bullish, the market faces several risks. One notable concern is the potential liquidation of Bitcoin holdings by companies like Strategy, which could further exacerbate selling pressure. JPMorgan has already warned that the enterprise value-to-Bitcoin holdings ratio must remain above 1.0 to avoid a forced liquidation scenario.

Additionally, the ETF outflows from IBIT could signal a broader shift in institutional sentiment. As the largest Bitcoin ETF, its performance has historically acted as a barometer for institutional adoption. A sustained outflow could weaken the macro support for Bitcoin and increase downward pressure on prices.

As the market watches for signs of a reversal, the coming weeks will be crucial for both the ETF and the broader Bitcoin market. Whether the current technical setup leads to a deeper correction or a bullish breakout will likely depend on macroeconomic factors, institutional behavior, and the broader adoption of tokenization across financial markets.