Bitcoin News Today: Bitwise CIO Ends Crypto's Four-Year Cycle Citing Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Clarity as Bitcoin Rises 10.17%

Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, has declared the end of the cryptocurrency market’s traditional four-year price cycle, a pattern historically tied to Bitcoin’s halving events and subsequent boom-bust dynamics. Speaking to investors, Hougan emphasized that the market is entering a new phase driven by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity rather than predictable halving-driven volatility [1]. “The four-year cycle is dead,” he stated, noting that long-term structural forces are now shaping crypto’s trajectory. This shift, he argues, could lead to a steadier, more sustained growth model rather than the volatile rollercoaster seen in previous cycles [2].

Hougan’s analysis challenges the reliability of Bitcoin’s halving cycle, which historically drove price surges followed by corrections. While acknowledging the cycle’s past influence, he highlighted that institutional interest and evolving regulatory frameworks are now more critical to market stability. Improved regulation, he explained, reduces the risk of sudden collapses, fostering an environment conducive to long-term investment. This perspective aligns with broader trends, including Bitcoin’s growing appeal as a hedge in a low-interest-rate environment and the increasing participation of institutional players [3].

The 2026 timeline for a potential market breakout is central to Hougan’s forecast. He cited the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts as a key catalyst, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s advocacy for monetary easing amplifying this scenario. However, Hougan cautioned that risks remain, such as the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies, which could destabilize the market if prices swing sharply [4]. His optimism is not universally shared. Analysts like Rekt Capital have warned that the current cycle may peak earlier, potentially in October 2024, echoing past halving-driven trends [4]. Conversely, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju supports Hougan’s view, noting a shift in investor behavior: long-term holders are now dominating accumulation patterns, unlike previous cycles where large whales offloaded assets to retail investors [4].

Market data underscores the ongoing debate. Bitcoin’s price rose 10.17% in the past month, trading at $118,169, reflecting both volatility and divergent expert views [4]. Hougan stressed that while 2026 could be a breakout year, the timing and magnitude of price movements remain uncertain. “I bet 2026 is an up year,” he said, but urged caution against overconfidence in market timing [4]. This nuanced stance reflects a maturing asset class, where macroeconomic trends and investor sentiment play a larger role than historical patterns.

As regulatory frameworks solidify and institutional demand grows, the four-year cycle’s relevance appears to wane. Hougan’s declaration marks a turning point, suggesting crypto’s future will be shaped by structural factors rather than halving events. Yet, the path forward remains contested, with traditionalists clinging to historical cycles and modernists embracing a new paradigm. The coming years will determine which narrative prevails.

Sources:

[1] [Bitwise CIO Declares End of Crypto’s Four-Year Cycle] (https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/cryptocurrency-news/bitwise-cio-declares-end-of-cryptos-four-year-cycle/)

[2] [Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Dead as ...] (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-year-cycle-dead-2026-breakout-year-predicted-bitwise-cio-2507/)

[3] [Bitcoin's New Clock: How Wall Street Killed The Old Cycle ...] (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-989899-20250727)

[4] [Bitcoin Price Could Rise Significantly in 2026, Claims ...] (https://news.ssbcrack.com/bitcoin-price-could-rise-significantly-in-2026-claims-bitwise-cio-matt-hougan/)