Bitcoin News Today: Bitwise CIO Declares Four-Year Crypto Cycle Obsolete Citing Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Advances

Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has declared the traditional four-year cryptocurrency cycle obsolete, signaling a transformative phase for the industry driven by institutional adoption and regulatory advancements. The four-year pattern, historically tied to Bitcoin’s halving events and retail-driven speculation, is no longer dictating market dynamics, according to Hougan. Instead, long-term trends such as ETF inflows, institutional infrastructure investment, and evolving macroeconomic conditions are reshaping the sector’s trajectory [1].

Hougan attributes the collapse of the old cycle to three key factors: the diminishing significance of Bitcoin halvings, the shift to a positive interest rate environment for crypto, and reduced systemic risks due to improved regulation and institutional safeguards [2]. “The forces that created prior four-year cycles are weaker,” he stated on X, emphasizing that halvings—once a catalyst for price surges—have lost predictive power over time. With central banks adopting more crypto-friendly policies and institutional players deploying multi-year strategies, the market is now governed by fundamentals rather than short-term speculative waves [3].

The CIO highlighted a 5-10 year timeline for ETF asset migration as a critical driver, alongside broader institutional adoption still in its early stages. He noted that pension funds and endowments are only beginning to evaluate crypto allocations, a process expected to culminate in 2026 with large-scale commitments. Regulatory progress, particularly following the GENIUS Act, is also accelerating Wall Street’s investment in crypto infrastructure, with Hougan predicting “record flows” in both 2025 and 2026 as due diligence concludes [4].

While some analysts, like James Seyffart, acknowledge that cycles may persist but with reduced amplitude, Hougan argues that institutional participation inherently stabilizes the market. Seyffart noted that institutional “force buyers” could temper volatility, potentially limiting pullbacks to 50% rather than the historical 80% seen in retail-dominated cycles [5]. This shift underscores a maturing asset class where compliance-heavy onboarding—evidenced by 650-page compliance packages and multi-visit evaluations—has normalized crypto as a strategic investment [6].

The implications of this transition are profound. Hougan’s outlook envisions a “sustained steady boom” rather than a super-cycle, with institutional flows providing liquidity and stability. This aligns with broader trends in traditional finance, where crypto is increasingly treated as a core asset rather than a speculative outlier. As corporate treasuries and pension funds integrate crypto into their portfolios, the market’s reliance on retail sentiment is diminishing [7].

Hougan’s thesis is reinforced by current industry developments, including record Bitcoin ETF inflows and growing infrastructure investment. These trends suggest crypto’s next phase will be defined by integration with traditional financial systems, rather than isolated speculative cycles. While volatility may persist, the market’s new institutional-driven structure offers a counterbalance, fostering resilience and scalability [8].

Source: [1] [Bitwise CIO Declares the Crypto Cycle Dead—Institutions Are the New Drivers](https://crypto.news/bitwise-cio-says-four-year-crypto-cycle-over-heres-why/)

[2] [Bitwise CIO Declares Crypto Four-Year Cycle Dead](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/bitwise-cio-declares-crypto-four%E2%80%91year-cycle-dead-predicts-steady-and-sustained-boom-from-2026/)

[3] [Bitwise CIO Declares “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Dead”](https://cryptonews.com/news/bitwise-cio-declares-four-year-crypto-cycle-is-dead-is-a-steady-record-breaking-boom-next/)

[4] [Crypto Market's Four-Year Cycle Is 'Dead'](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-988765-20250726)

[5] [Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Loses Grip](https://ground.news/article/crypto-cycle-revolutionizing-market-dynamics-beyond-the-four-year-pattern)

[6] [Reddit Discussion on Bitcoin’s Cycle](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1m95kae/bitcoins_fouryear_cycle_loses_grip_as_maturing/)