Bitcoin News Today: Bitwise CIO Declares Four-Year Crypto Cycle Dead as Institutions and Regulation Reshape Market

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has declared the end of the traditional four-year crypto cycle, citing a fundamental shift in market dynamics driven by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. In a recent discussion with industry figures, Hougan argued that factors such as Bitcoin’s halving events, which historically dictated market rhythms, are losing relevance as the industry evolves. The CIO emphasized that the crypto market is now shaped by long-term capital flows from institutions, stable macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory progress, rather than retail-driven hype or periodic volatility [1].

The four-year cycle, once defined by Bitcoin halvings, interest rate cycles, and major market crashes, is no longer a reliable framework, according to Hougan. He noted that the impact of halvings diminishes with each cycle—each one being “half as important as the last”—due to declining block rewards and the expanding scale of the crypto economy. Additionally, interest rates, which previously acted as a headwind for crypto during downturns, are now supportive in a more accommodative macro environment. Hougan also highlighted reduced “blow-up risk” as improved regulation and institutional participation have stabilized the sector [1].

Hougan’s analysis points to a new era of sustained growth driven by institutional capital flows. He identified the rise of crypto ETFs as a key factor, with inflows starting in 2024 and expected to persist for five to ten years. Institutional investors, including pensions, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds, are only beginning to integrate crypto into their portfolios. Regulatory developments, such as the passage of the GENIUS Act in January 2025, have further enabled Wall Street to build financial products around digital assets. Hougan predicted banks will invest billions in crypto-related infrastructure in the coming years, signaling a structural shift rather than cyclical speculation [1].

The CIO also outlined evolving market patterns, such as the emergence of crypto treasury firms holding Bitcoin on balance sheets. These developments, he argued, will lead to a “sustained steady boom” rather than the sharp booms and busts of the past. Hougan expects 2026 to be a strong year for crypto despite ongoing volatility, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to demand from institutional buyers and political support. He cited BlackRock’s recommended 2% Bitcoin allocation and the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs as milestones in institutional adoption [1].

Hougan’s thesis reflects a broader transformation in the crypto landscape. The survival of Bitcoin, he noted, was cemented when governments became holders, shifting the focus from speculative survival to structural growth. With regulatory stability and growing institutional confidence, the market is entering a phase where long-term trends—rather than short-term cycles—will dominate.

Source: [1] [Bitwise CIO Declares “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Dead”—Is a Steady, Record-Breaking Boom Next?](https://cryptonews.com/news/bitwise-cio-declares-four-year-crypto-cycle-is-dead-is-a-steady-record-breaking-boom-next/)