Bitcoin News Today: Bitwise CIO Declares Four-Year Crypto Cycle Dead Institutional Adoption and Regulation Reshape Market

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has challenged the long-held narrative of a four-year crypto cycle, asserting that the market’s drivers have fundamentally shifted. In a recent analysis, Hougan argued that traditional cyclical patterns—once dictated by Bitcoin’s halving events, interest rate cycles, and speculative bursts—no longer hold sway. Instead, he highlighted the growing influence of institutional capital, regulatory clarity, and Wall Street’s integration of crypto as forces reshaping the industry’s trajectory. “The halving is half as important every four years,” Hougan stated, noting that diminishing block rewards now play a smaller role in market dynamics relative to the expanding crypto economy [1].

Hougan’s thesis centers on the weakening of historical drivers. For instance, the Bitcoin halving, which previously signaled bullish phases, has seen its impact erode over time. Similarly, interest rate cycles—once bearish for crypto during downturns like 2018 and 2022—are now acting as tailwinds due to a more stable macroeconomic environment. Additionally, the risk of systemic collapses, which once punctuated crypto cycles, has diminished with improved regulation and institutional participation. “Blow-up risk is no longer the dominant force it was,” Hougan said, emphasizing that the sector’s volatility is now tempered by structured governance and diversified investor bases [1].

The CIO envisions a “sustained steady boom” replacing the sharp booms and busts of the past. This shift, he explained, is driven by long-term capital inflows into crypto-related products such as ETFs, which began gaining traction in 2024 and are expected to persist for years. Institutional adoption is also a key factor, with pensions, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds increasingly allocating to crypto. Hougan cited the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growing acceptance of Bitcoin by public companies as evidence of this trend. “The next phase is about infrastructure and institutionalization, not speculation,” he stated, underscoring the role of Wall Street in building financial products around digital assets [1].

Regulatory developments further support this transition. Hougan pointed to the passage of the GENIUS Act in January 2025 as a milestone, describing it as a catalyst for clearer regulatory frameworks and increased participation from traditional financial institutions. The legislation, he argued, has enabled banks to invest billions in crypto products, signaling a structural shift in the asset class’s legitimacy. “The final barrier fell when governments became holders,” Hougan said, referencing the normalization of crypto adoption by institutions and policymakers [1].

Looking ahead, Hougan predicted a “strong year” for crypto in 2026 but cautioned that volatility will remain. He previously forecasted Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing demand from sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors. This optimism is anchored in the broader shift toward structural adoption, where crypto transitions from speculative trading to a core component of diversified portfolios. “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces,” Hougan concluded, framing the future as one of steady growth rather than cyclical extremes [1].

Source: [1] [Bitwise CIO Declares “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Dead”—Is a Steady, Record-Breaking Boom Next?](https://cryptonews.com/news/bitwise-cio-declares-four-year-crypto-cycle-is-dead-is-a-steady-record-breaking-boom-next/)