Bitcoin News Today: Bitwise CIO Declares Four-Year Crypto Cycle Dead by 2026 ETFs Institutions Drive Growth

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, has declared the traditional four-year cryptocurrency cycle obsolete, signaling a paradigm shift in the market driven by institutional adoption and evolving financial instruments. Across multiple statements in late July and early August 2025, Hougan emphasized that the historical pattern of Bitcoin’s price surges aligning with its four-year halving cycle is no longer predictive. Instead, he highlighted a new era of sustained growth fueled by institutional-grade products like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and broader participation from traditional finance players [1][2][3].

Hougan’s analysis suggests that the crypto market is transitioning from speculative, event-driven volatility to a more mature framework. “The four-year cycle is dead,” he stated in a series of posts, noting that institutional investors, pensions, and banks are now reshaping dynamics. This shift, he argued, reduces reliance on Bitcoin’s halving events—previously a key catalyst for price rallies—as institutional adoption creates a more stable and predictable demand structure [4][5].

A central pillar of Hougan’s outlook is the role of ETFs in democratizing access to crypto assets. He cited the recent proliferation of Bitcoin ETFs as evidence of a “Wall Street-led entry” that could span five to ten years, with major financial institutions like JPMorgan and BlackRock playing pivotal roles. “ETF adoption has just begun,” he remarked, forecasting a gradual but steady integration of crypto into traditional portfolios [6]. This trend, combined with regulatory advancements, positions the market for long-term growth rather than short-term cycles [7].

Looking ahead, Hougan predicted that 2026 will mark a pivotal “up year” for Bitcoin, though he stressed this is a forecast based on current trends rather than an absolute certainty. The timeline aligns with the maturation of institutional products and increased liquidity, which he views as more significant drivers than the 2026 halving event. “The halving is losing importance,” he noted, reiterating that the market’s focus is shifting to fundamentals like adoption rates and regulatory clarity [1][8].

While Hougan painted an optimistic picture, he also flagged emerging risks. Companies employing Treasury-style Bitcoin strategies—such as hedging or leveraging fiat reserves—could introduce new volatility if market conditions shift. Additionally, he cautioned against overreliance on historical patterns, urging investors to adapt to the evolving landscape [9].

The statements reflect a broader industry consensus that the crypto market is moving toward institutionalization. Analysts at Binance and FXStreet have similarly noted a decline in the predictive power of the four-year cycle, attributing it to increased participation from professional investors and improved infrastructure [3][10]. However, critics argue that the 2026 timeline remains speculative, given the unpredictable nature of macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin 'up year' is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio) [2] [Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Dead as ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-year-cycle-dead-2026-breakout-year-predicted-bitwise-cio-2507/) [3] [Bitwise CIO declares the crypto cycle dead—institutions](https://crypto.news/bitwise-cio-says-four-year-crypto-cycle-over-heres-why/) [4] [Bitwise Declares the End of the 4-Year Cryptocurrency Cycle](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/27450780526882) [5] [Crypto market's four-year cycle is 'dead,' Bitcoin halving ...](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-markets-four-year-cycle-is-dead-bitcoin-halving-losing-importance-bitwise-executive-202507252018) [6] [Bitwise CIO Declares Crypto Four‑Year Cycle Dead ...](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/bitwise-cio-declares-crypto-four%E2%80%91year-cycle-dead-predicts-steady-and-sustained-boom-from-2026/) [7] [Bitcoin's four-year cycle loses grip as maturing market ...](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics/) [8] [Matt Hougan: "The 4-Year Boom Cycle No Longer Matters..."](https://bloomingbit.io/en/feed/news/93592) [9] [Bitwise CIO Declares “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Dead”](https://cryptonews.com/news/bitwise-cio-declares-four-year-crypto-cycle-is-dead-is-a-steady-record-breaking-boom-next/) [10] [Bitcoin Set for $199K Surge by Year-End, Says Citi Forecast](https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-bitcoin-set-for-199k-surge-by-year-end-says-citi-forecast)