Bitcoin News Today: Bitwise CIO Declares Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Dead as Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Shifts Redefine Market

The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, once a defining feature of the cryptocurrency’s price patterns, is no longer a reliable framework, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise. Hougan attributed this shift to structural changes in the market, including the diminishing influence of Bitcoin’s supply-side events like halvings, the rise of institutional-grade products, and evolving regulatory dynamics. “The forces that created prior four-year cycles are weaker,” he stated, noting that halvings—which historically triggered “demand shocks”—are being replaced by steady, incremental institutional purchases of Bitcoin [1].

Hougan emphasized that the market’s new trajectory is shaped by factors that extend beyond the four-year timeline. Institutional adoption, driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), is central to this transformation. He described this as a “5–10 year shift” already underway in 2024, with traditional financial institutions such as pensions, endowments, and national account platforms increasingly evaluating crypto as part of their portfolios [1]. Regulatory developments, including the 2025 passage of the GENIUS Act, have further normalized Wall Street’s participation in crypto, spurring billions in new capital inflows. “Legislative support is helping bring Wall Street players who will invest billions in the coming years,” Hougan said, framing the transition as a fundamental reorientation of how traditional finance views digital assets [1].

The CIO also highlighted a key macroeconomic shift: Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cycles has flipped from negative to positive. Unlike in 2018 and 2022, when rate hikes coincided with crypto market downturns, the current environment suggests a more stable alignment. Hougan predicted this trend would amplify Bitcoin’s appeal to institutional investors, who now prioritize long-term exposure over short-term volatility. “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces,” he asserted, forecasting a “stable, sustained boom” rather than the sharp, cyclical surges and crashes of previous eras [1].

While Hougan identified 2026 as a potential inflection point—when institutional flows, regulatory clarity, and ETF-driven demand could converge—he also warned of risks. A surge in corporate Bitcoin treasury formations, for instance, could introduce new volatility or distort market dynamics. His comments followed similar assessments from industry peers, including Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant, who acknowledged the obsolescence of Bitcoin’s first-cycle theories and apologized for past incorrect predictions [1].

Analysts have largely aligned with Hougan’s view that the market is transitioning from event-driven cycles to a more mature ecosystem. One report noted that institutional infrastructure has reduced reliance on Bitcoin’s supply-side events, such as halvings, which Hougan pointed out now have “half the impact every four years” [1]. This shift reflects broader normalization of crypto as a mainstream asset class, with ETFs and regulated platforms enabling institutional access. The GENIUS Act’s role in accelerating Wall Street’s entry has already redirected capital into crypto, further embedding it within traditional financial systems [1].

Hougan’s analysis challenges the predictive value of historical Bitcoin cycles. While halvings remain symbolic milestones, their diminishing returns and the rise of institutional-grade products signal a new paradigm. “The four-year cycle is dead,” he reiterated, positioning the change as a positive development for investors seeking stability and long-term growth. The market’s next chapter, he argued, will be defined not by algorithmic scarcity but by the interplay of institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic alignment [1].

Source: [1] [Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/26/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-says-four-year-cycle-is-dead-predicts-2026-will-be-a-good-year-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-heres-why/)