Bitcoin News Today: Bitwise CIO Declares Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Obsolete Predicts 2026 Rally

Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has declared the traditional four-year cryptocurrency price cycle obsolete, marking a pivotal shift in market dynamics. Hougan attributes this transformation to the rising influence of institutional investors, regulatory advancements, and the proliferation of financial products like spot Bitcoin ETFs [1]. His statement challenges the long-held narrative that Bitcoin’s price movements are primarily dictated by halving events, which historically triggered speculative retail-driven booms every four years [2]. Instead, Hougan argues that the market is now characterized by a “sustained steady boom,” driven by institutional capital flows and regulatory clarity [3].

The CIO emphasized that macroeconomic factors and institutional adoption have overshadowed the volatility linked to halving cycles. “The four-year cycle is dead…Institutional investors, pensions, and banks are now reshaping dynamics,” Hougan stated, highlighting how large-scale capital inflows and risk management strategies are fostering stability [4]. This shift is exemplified by the emergence of regulated financial instruments, such as Bitcoin ETFs, which attract mainstream investors and reduce reliance on speculative retail behavior [5].

Hougan’s analysis also includes a forecast: he anticipates a Bitcoin price rally in 2026, decoupled from halving events. This prediction hinges on continued institutional participation and regulatory developments, rather than historical patterns tied to Bitcoin’s supply adjustments [6]. Notably, he cited Japan’s $550 billion investment pledge and PayPal’s stablecoin initiatives as indicators of institutional engagement that could sustain demand [7]. However, critics caution that regulatory shifts and macroeconomic volatility remain potential disruptors to long-term trends [8].

The implications of Hougan’s assertions extend beyond Bitcoin. By framing institutional adoption as the new paradigm, Bitwise’s CIO underscores a broader transition in how crypto assets are valued. Traditional cycles, once reliant on retail speculation and technical indicators, are being replaced by market forces shaped by macroeconomic planning and institutional infrastructure. This aligns with 2025’s developments, including crypto-friendly regulations and the integration of digital assets into traditional portfolios [9].

While the debate over market predictability persists, Hougan’s perspective reflects a growing industry consensus that structural growth is replacing cyclical hype. “The next chapter of crypto isn’t about cycles—it’s about building infrastructure and trust,” he noted, signaling a focus on long-term adoption and regulatory trust [10]. As the sector evolves, the interplay between institutional capital, policy frameworks, and technological innovation will likely define its trajectory.

Source: [1] [Bitwise CIO Bets on Bitcoin Rally in 2026, Defying 4-Year Cycle] (https://cryptonews.com/news/bitwise-cio-bets-on-bitcoin-rally-in-2026-defying-4-year-cycle/) [2] [Bitwise CIO declares the crypto cycle dead—institutions] (https://crypto.news/bitwise-cio-says-four-year-crypto-cycle-over-heres-why/) [3] [Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Dead as Institutions Drive Market] (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitwise-cio-bitcoin-year-cycle-dead-institutions-drive-2026-pivotal-year-2507/) [4] [Bitwise CIO Declares Traditional Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle “Dead”] (https://news.ssbcrack.com/retail-stocks-experience-new-meme-stock-surge-as-amateur-traders-reignite-frenzy/) [5] [Bitwise CIO Declares Traditional Crypto Cycle Dead] (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68865c36bc4f3d117c473b38/) [6] [Bitwise CIO Bets on Bitcoin Rally in 2026, Defying 4-Year Cycle] (https://cryptonews.com/news/bitwise-cio-bets-on-bitcoin-rally-in-2026-defying-4-year-cycle/) [7] [Japan's $550 Billion Investment Pledge Raises Questions] (https://news.ssbcrack.com/japans-550-billion-investment-pledge-raises-questions-about-trade-deal-viability/) [8] [Bitwise CIO declares the crypto cycle dead—institutions] (https://crypto.news/bitwise-cio-says-four-year-crypto-cycle-over-heres-why/) [9] [Bitwise CIO Declares Traditional Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle “Dead”] (https://news.ssbcrack.com/retail-stocks-experience-new-meme-stock-surge-as-amateur-traders-reignite-frenzy/) [10] [Bitwise CIO Declares Traditional Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle “Dead”] (https://news.ssbcrack.com/retail-stocks-experience-new-meme-stock-surge-as-amateur-traders-reignite-frenzy/)