Bitcoin News Today: Bitwise CIO Declares Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Dead Predicts 2026 Bull Run Driven by ETFs and Institutional Adoption

Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, has declared the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle obsolete, predicting a bullish 2026 for the cryptocurrency. According to Hougan, the forces that historically drove Bitcoin’s price through cyclical booms and busts—such as the Bitcoin halving—have weakened in influence. He argues that the halving’s impact diminishes by half every four years, reducing its significance as a market driver [1].

Hougan highlighted four key factors reshaping the crypto landscape: institutional adoption, regulatory progress, the rise of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and Wall Street’s growing integration of crypto assets. Institutional investors, he noted, are only beginning to embrace Bitcoin, with ETFs now available on national account platforms and pensions and endowments starting to consider crypto allocations [2]. Regulatory clarity, which gained momentum in January 2025, is expected to continue evolving over multiple years, further stabilizing the market [3]. Meanwhile, the passage of the GENIUS Act has marked the beginning of significant Wall Street investment in crypto infrastructure, a trend Hougan anticipates will accelerate in the coming quarters and years [4].

These developments, according to Hougan, are part of long-term structural shifts that will overshadow the historical four-year cycle. “The movement of assets into ETFs is a 5–10 year trend,” he stated, emphasizing the gradual but transformative nature of institutional adoption [5]. He also noted that broader market forces—such as regulatory frameworks and institutional trust—are no longer aligned with the four-year timeline, rendering it an outdated model for predicting Bitcoin’s trajectory [6].

The CIO’s analysis suggests that 2026 could become a pivotal year for Bitcoin, driven not by cyclical patterns but by sustained institutional interest and regulatory support. “All this suggests to me that the long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic ‘four-year cycle’ forces,” Hougan said, framing 2026 as a turning point rather than a repetition of past market dynamics [7].

Critically, Hougan’s outlook diverges from historical patterns where Bitcoin’s price peaked approximately four years after previous bull runs. Instead, he underscores the diminishing relevance of the halving event—a key component of the four-year cycle—as a standalone catalyst for price action. This view aligns with growing industry consensus that Bitcoin’s maturity as an asset class is reducing its reliance on predictable cycles, even as volatility persists [8].

The implications of Hougan’s analysis are significant for investors and regulators alike. A shift away from the four-year cycle implies that Bitcoin’s future performance will depend more on macroeconomic factors, institutional trust, and regulatory clarity than on predictable technical events like halvings. This could attract a broader range of investors, including those previously hesitant to enter a market perceived as volatile and unpredictable [9].

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin 'Up Year' is 2026, and the Four-Year Cycle is Dead](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio)

[2] [Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead ...](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/26/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-says-four-year-cycle-is-dead-predicts-2026-will-be-a-good-year-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-heres-why/)

[3] [Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Loses Grip as ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-4-year-boom-bust-cycle-loses-grip-institutional-adoption-etfs-drive-2026-breakout-2507/)

[4] [Crypto Market's Four-Year Cycle is 'Dead,' Bitcoin Halving ...](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-markets-four-year-cycle-is-dead-bitcoin-halving-losing-importance-bitwise-executive-202507252018)

[5] [Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Adoption and ETFs ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-institutional-adoption-etfs-reshape-crypto-market-dynamics-2026-2507/)

[6] [Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Loses Grip as Maturing Market ...](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics/)

[7] [Bitwise CIO Declares the Crypto Cycle Dead—institutions](https://crypto.news/bitwise-cio-says-four-year-crypto-cycle-over-heres-why/)

[8] [Four-Year Bitcoin Cycles Are Dead, Bitwise CIO Says](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/b31b8-four-year-bitcoin-cycles-are-dead-bitwise-cio-says)

[9] [Bitwise CIO Declares Crypto Four‑Year Cycle Dead ...](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/bitwise-cio-declares-crypto-four%E2%80%91year-cycle-dead-predicts-steady-and-sustained-boom-from-2026/)