Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Seven-Year October Streak Collapses Amid Tariff Fears and Fed Hesitation

Bitcoin's seven-year streak of October gains, dubbed "Uptober," ended in 2025 as the cryptocurrency fell nearly 10% for the month, marking its first October decline since 2018, according to a Coinpedia report. After hitting an all-time high of $126,300 in early October, Bitcoin dropped to around $110,000 by month-end, driven by profit-taking, a cautious market mood, and global economic shifts, including signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The sell-off was exacerbated by a $19 billion liquidation event triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which intensified U.S.-China trade tensions and spooked risk assets, as reported by The Economic Times.

The decline has sparked debates about Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. Analysts note that the $88,000 level—representing the average cost basis of active investors—could act as a critical support floor if the current downward trend persists, according to a Coinpedia analysis. However, a sustained close above $113,000 could invalidate the bearish outlook and open the door for a recovery rally. For now, Bitcoin remains up over 16% year-to-date, with experts viewing the dip as a "healthy correction" amid macroeconomic uncertainty, as Coinpedia previously reported.

The U.S.-China trade deal announced on October 30, which reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%, initially boosted risk sentiment. Bitcoin rebounded to $110,000 in early November as the de-escalation offset some of the earlier volatility, according to The Block. Yet, the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts continues to weigh on the market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the October 25-basis-point cut might be the last of 2025, citing concerns over sticky inflation and a government shutdown delaying key economic data, as reported by Fortune. This uncertainty has kept institutional investors on edge, with nearly $800 million pulled from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last week, a trend noted in the Coinpedia piece.

Market participants are now closely watching November's potential for a "Santa Rally," a historical December surge fueled by year-end liquidity and rate-cut optimism. Some analysts predict Bitcoin could rebound above $160,000 if ETF inflows rise and geopolitical tensions ease, as discussed in the Economic Times article. However, the path to recovery remains fraught: Bitcoin must hold above $113,000 to avoid further declines, while a breakdown below $100,000 could trigger widespread capitulation among short-term holders, according to the Coinpedia analysis.

The crypto market's broader outlook is also clouded by weak October performance and institutional selling. Total crypto market capitalization fell to $3.76 trillion as of late October, with Ethereum dropping 3.5% to $3,750, according to a report in The Economic Times. Despite this, long-term holders remain bullish, with whale activity indicating continued confidence in Bitcoin's upward potential, per a Yahoo Finance piece.

As the year draws to a close, Bitcoin's fate hinges on macroeconomic clarity and geopolitical stability. With the Fed expected to end quantitative tightening by December 1 and a potential rate cut still on the table, liquidity could improve, fueling a late-year rally. For now, traders are advised to monitor the $113,000 resistance and $100,000 support levels, as a breakout or breakdown could dictate Bitcoin's next major move, the Coinpedia analysis cautions.