Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Theory Dead as Institutional Adoption, $154B ETFs Stabilize Market

The traditional four-year cycle theory, once a cornerstone of Bitcoin’s market analysis tied to halving events and historical price patterns, has been declared obsolete by leading industry figures. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, argues that structural shifts—particularly surging institutional adoption—have disrupted the predictable volatility and price surges historically linked to Bitcoin’s halving schedule. Institutional investors and corporations are now driving demand through steady, incremental purchases, replacing the “demand shocks” previously associated with halving events [1]. This shift, combined with improved regulatory clarity and the institutionalization of the crypto industry, has reduced the risk of market collapse, Hougan noted [1].

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, now managing over $154 billion in assets under management, has further stabilized the market, fostering a more predictable environment in 2024. Regulatory developments, such as the recent passage of the GENIUS Act, have accelerated the entry of Wall Street players into crypto, with Hougan predicting “billions in the coming years” in institutional investment [1][3]. Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and Fed interest rate changes has flipped from negative—observed in 2018 and 2022—to positive, signaling a broader alignment with macroeconomic trends [1].

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also confirmed the invalidity of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory, apologizing for prior erroneous forecasts that relied on outdated models [1]. He emphasized that institutional activity has fundamentally altered market dynamics, rendering the boom-bust patterns once tied to halvings obsolete [7]. Hougan echoed this, stating that the maturation of institutional strategies and ETF inflows will likely position 2026 as a “strong year” for Bitcoin, though he cautioned that volatility remains a factor [6].

Despite the growing stability, experts highlight potential risks. Hougan identified the “significant risk” of a surge in corporate Bitcoin treasuries, which could distort market behavior if overused. While the death of the four-year cycle suggests a “stable, stable boom” rather than a supercycle, market participants must now focus on evolving institutional strategies, regulatory trends, and macroeconomic factors, which Hougan described as increasingly favorable for crypto [1][10].

The shift away from halving-driven cycles reflects the broader maturation of the crypto ecosystem. As traditional financial institutions deepen their participation and regulatory frameworks solidify, the industry is moving toward a model driven by institutional demand and macroeconomic alignment rather than speculative cycles. This transition, however, does not eliminate volatility entirely, with Hougan predicting “significant volatility” in 2026 despite an overall positive trajectory [1].

Source:

[1] [Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/26/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-says-four-year-cycle-is-dead-predicts-2026-will-be-a-good-year-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-heres-why/)

[3] [Crypto's 4-Year Cycle Is Over: $154B ETF Surge Signals New Market Era](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/07/26/cryptos-4-year-cycle-is-over-154b-etf-surge-signals-new-market-era/)

[4] [Crypto market's four-year cycle is 'dead'] (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-988765-20250726)

[5] [Why the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead](https://quasa.io/media/why-the-four-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-dead)

[6] [Bitwise CIO Declares “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Dead”](https://cryptonews.com/news/bitwise-cio-declares-four-year-crypto-cycle-is-dead-is-a-steady-record-breaking-boom-next/)

[7] ['Bitcoin cycle theory is dead' Says CryptoQuant CEO](https://crypto-economy.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-says-cryptoquant-ceo-what-does-it-mean/)

[8] [Bitwise CIO Declares Crypto Four‑Year Cycle Dead](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/bitwise-cio-declares-crypto-four%E2%80%91year-cycle-dead-predicts-steady-and-sustained-boom-from-2026/)

[10] [How Bitcoin's boom-bust cycles are changing](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-boom-bust-cycles-changing-193325092.html)