Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Shows Signs of Obsolescence Amid ETFs and Regulation

Bitcoin’s long-established four-year price rhythm is showing signs of transformation as evolving investor behavior and regulatory shifts begin to redefine market dynamics. Historically, Bitcoin's trajectory has been shaped by halving events—occurring roughly every four years—where the rate of new coin issuance is cut by half, theoretically reducing supply and pushing prices higher. This has typically led to sharp price spikes followed by steep corrections, with market peaks occurring roughly 500–720 days after the halving event [1].

However, the recent cycle has deviated from this script. A record high above $73,000 was hit in March 2024—well before the April 2024 halving—prompting analysts to reconsider the predictive power of the four-year cycle. Matthew Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, noted that if positive returns persist through 2026, the traditional cycle may officially be over [1]. The early surge was driven by the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, which allowed institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset. This led to rapid and large-scale capital inflows, altering the timing and nature of price discovery [1].

The shift is not solely attributed to ETF demand. Regulatory developments have also played a key role. The SEC’s more measured approach under Donald Trump, including the dismissal of some prior enforcement actions, has fostered a more stable environment for the crypto market. Meanwhile, Washington is actively working on new legislation and has launched a Bitcoin strategic reserve, signaling a more constructive stance from policymakers [1]. Public companies are increasingly adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, further embedding it within traditional financial systems.

This evolving landscape has led to a more mature and institutional-driven market. Ryan Chow, co-founder of Solv Protocol, emphasized that long-term holder accumulation at record highs and reduced volatility suggest that the traditional four-year rhythm is being replaced by liquidity-driven and macro-correlated behavior [1]. Unlike previous cycles that saw drawdowns of 70–80%, the current cycle has experienced a maximum decline of approximately 26%, attributed to institutional support and the growing presence of long-term holders. While pullbacks of 30–50% may still occur due to macro or regulatory shocks, these are expected to be less severe and shorter in duration.

Analysts remain divided on the future trajectory. While some, like Hougan, believe the four-year cycle is effectively over, others, such as Tom Lee of LIG Capital, continue to project significant price targets based on growing institutional adoption. This divergence reflects a broader shift in how Bitcoin is being priced and traded—less as a speculative asset and more as an evolving financial product with increasing institutional and regulatory influence [4].

The market’s transition appears to mark the end of an era where Bitcoin’s price was primarily dictated by supply-side mechanics. Now, it is increasingly shaped by a complex interplay of capital flows, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions. Whether the four-year cycle is truly obsolete or merely evolving remains to be seen, but what is clear is that Bitcoin’s future will be less predictable by traditional metrics and more responsive to a broader set of market forces [1].

Sources:

[1] https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689644740ba3eb5ab86f3666/

[4] https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/62807-tom-lee-sticks-with-250-k-bitcoin-call-as-others-scale-back