Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Rages On Amid Institutional Bet

Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle may still be intact, with several analysts suggesting that the market could see a peak in October, according to recent onchain analysis and market commentary. Onchain analytics firm Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s price action aligns with historical patterns, indicating the asset is potentially entering a late-cycle phase [1]. The firm emphasized signs such as increased profit-taking by long-term holders—those holding Bitcoin for over 155 days—as a key indicator of a market nearing its peak [1].

Glassnode also pointed to a slowdown in demand for Bitcoin, with spot ETFs showing net outflows of around $975 million over the past four trading days [1]. The recent pullback in Bitcoin’s price from a high of $124,128 on August 14 to $113,940, a drop of 8.3%, supports the idea that the market may be consolidating ahead of a potential cycle high [1]. In the previous cycles of 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin’s peaks occurred within two to three months after the cycle lows, suggesting that this could be a similar pattern [1].

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also highlighted that if the current cycle follows the 2020 pattern, Bitcoin could reach a peak in October, or 550 days after the April 2024 halving [1]. This timing aligns with historical precedents where the halving event has historically signaled the beginning of a bull phase. However, some market participants remain skeptical about the relevance of the four-year cycle in the current environment. Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, argued that the halving’s influence on Bitcoin’s price is diminishing and that the current cycle could play out differently due to rising institutional adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions [1].

The debate over the longevity of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has gained traction as more public treasuries, including top 100 companies, have allocated substantial Bitcoin holdings. According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, these entities hold nearly 1 million Bitcoin, valued at around $112.17 billion [1]. Author and investor Jason Williams suggested that this growing institutional interest could extend or alter the typical cycle, making it difficult to predict exact timing [1].

While some analysts remain bullish on a potential October peak, others caution that the evolving market dynamics—such as rising spot ETF demand and macroeconomic tailwinds—could lead to a more prolonged bull run. The market remains in a state of observation, with investors closely watching for signs of renewed institutional buying or shifts in macroeconomic policy that could either accelerate or delay the next peak.

Source: [1] Bitcoin's 4-year cycle may not be dead after all: Glassnode (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-4-year-old-cycle-not-dead-crypto-analysts)