Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Obsolete as Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Clarity Reshape Market

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, has declared the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle obsolete, arguing that macroeconomic trends, institutional adoption, and regulatory clarity are now reshaping the cryptocurrency’s trajectory. Speaking via a video on X, Hougan asserted that 2026 could emerge as a breakout year for Bitcoin (BTC), as these forces overshadow historical price patterns tied to halvings and retail speculation. “I bet 2026 is an up year. We’re in for a good few years,” he stated, contrasting with analysts who still expect a price peak within months of the 2024 halving [1].

The four-year cycle, historically driven by Bitcoin’s halving events—reductions in mining rewards that limit supply—has long been used to predict price surges. However, Hougan attributes the cycle’s declining relevance to diminishing supply shocks. Each halving is becoming “half as important” as the previous due to Bitcoin’s shrinking block rewards, reducing its market impact [1]. He also highlighted shifting macroeconomic conditions, noting that former U.S. President Donald Trump’s pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates could drive investors toward higher-risk assets like Bitcoin. Lower rates typically reduce demand for bonds, pushing capital into assets with higher growth potential [1].

Institutional adoption and regulatory progress are further dampening volatility. Hougan emphasized that improved oversight and corporate participation—such as companies accumulating Bitcoin for balance sheets—are stabilizing the market. “Blow-up risk is attenuated due to improving regulation and institutionalization of the space,” he said [1]. This shift aligns with the rise of Bitcoin treasury firms, which are issuing stock or debt to purchase BTC. While asset manager VanEck has warned these companies may face risks in a bearish market, Hougan views their activity as evidence of a maturing, long-term investment culture [1].

The debate over Bitcoin’s future trajectory remains active. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju supports Hougan’s thesis, noting that institutional whales are now buying Bitcoin for long-term holdings rather than short-term retail trading. Conversely, crypto analyst Rekt Capital maintains that the 2020 cycle provides a template, predicting a potential peak in October 2025, roughly 550 days after the 2024 halving [1].

Hougan’s forecast hinges on sustained institutional demand and broader financial integration. He argues that Bitcoin’s price behavior will increasingly resemble a “steady, sustained boom” rather than cyclical spikes. This view is bolstered by the approval of $154 billion in ETFs, which have stabilized demand and reduced reliance on event-driven speculation [2]. For example, Ethereum’s recent ETF inflows—$5.1 billion—and BlackRock’s rapid growth in its Ethereum ETF underscore the growing influence of traditional finance in crypto markets [4].

While critics caution that halvings could still drive prices if supply constraints intensify, Hougan contends that utility and infrastructure now dominate market dynamics. Corporate treasuries and stablecoin adoption are also cited as factors anchoring demand [5]. As Bitcoin approaches its 2024 halving, market participants are increasingly prioritizing long-term adoption metrics over short-term volatility.

The implications for 2026 remain speculative, but Hougan’s stance reflects broader industry trends. Global developments, including Brazil’s crypto regulatory reforms, Vietnam’s blockchain initiatives, and Franklin Templeton’s tokenized treasury projects, highlight the sector’s evolution beyond retail speculation [6]. Whether 2026 becomes a defining year for Bitcoin’s next bull run, the shifting landscape suggests the four-year cycle is yielding to a more mature, institutionally driven market [3].

Source:

[1] CoinMarketCap Community, [url: https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6885ae1a8e504255176a2ac9/]

[2] AInvest, [url: https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-year-cycle-theory-dead-institutional-adoption-154b-etfs-stabilize-market-2507/]

[3] CryptoRank, [url: https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/19e6b-bitcoin-s-four-year-cycle-is-dead-what-s-next-for-cryptocurrency]

[4] CryptoSlate, [url: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics/]

[5] ONUS, [url: https://insights.goonus.io/en/insights/bitwise-cio-declares-four-year-crypto-cycle-is-dead-is-a-steady-record-breaking-boom-next/]

[6] Leap Digital Investments, [url: https://leapdigitalinvestments.com.au/major-milestones-for-litecoin-so-far-in-2025/]