Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Obsolete as Institutional Adoption and Regulation Drive New Era

The concept of Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle, once a cornerstone of market analysis, is increasingly dismissed as obsolete amid shifting dynamics in the cryptocurrency landscape. Matt Hougan, director of investments at Bitwise, argues that structural changes have rendered these cycles irrelevant. “The forces that shaped these cycles have weakened in the new environment,” he stated, emphasizing that institutional adoption and regulatory clarity now play a more significant role in Bitcoin’s trajectory than historical patterns tied to halving events or macroeconomic cycles [1].

Hougan highlighted three key transformations underpinning this shift. First, the demand shocks previously driven by halvings—scheduled reductions in Bitcoin’s block reward every four years—have been supplanted by steady, incremental purchases from institutions and corporations. This trend, he noted, creates a more predictable flow of capital into BTC compared to the speculative frenzies of past cycles. Second, improved regulation and the maturation of the crypto industry have mitigated the risk of catastrophic collapses seen in 2018 and 2022. Third, the next 5–10 years will likely see substantial inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as traditional financial institutions begin to allocate assets to the asset class [1].

Legislative developments, such as the recent passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S., are accelerating this transition. The bill aims to streamline the approval process for crypto ETFs, a move Hougan described as paving the way for Wall Street to invest “billions in the coming years” in Bitcoin. This institutional participation, he added, contrasts sharply with the retail-driven volatility of earlier cycles. Moreover, Bitcoin’s correlation with Federal Reserve interest rates has shifted from negative to positive since 2022. “Higher rates now correlate with higher Bitcoin prices,” Hougan observed, signaling a break from historical trends where tightening monetary policy suppressed demand [1].

Despite these developments, Hougan warned of a critical risk: the growing accumulation of Bitcoin by corporations. While large firms buying BTC as a treasury asset has become commonplace, excessive corporate buying could destabilize markets if not balanced by institutional demand. This dynamic, he noted, introduces a new layer of uncertainty distinct from traditional cycles [1].

Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, corroborated Hougan’s assessment, acknowledging that his previous reliance on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory was flawed. “The first cryptocurrency cycles no longer work,” Ju admitted, reflecting a broader industry consensus that historical patterns are losing predictive power as the market evolves [1].

The implications of these shifts suggest a future where Bitcoin’s price is driven by institutional adoption, regulatory frameworks, and macroeconomic policies rather than periodic supply shocks. Hougan described 2026 as a pivotal year, though he cautioned against expecting a “supercycle.” Instead, he forecasted a “stable, stable boom” characterized by gradual growth and reduced volatility compared to previous cycles [1]. However, he acknowledged the inherent unpredictability of markets, stating, “I could be wrong, but we’ll see significant volatility.”

Source: [1] [Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Dead: What’s Next for Cryptocurrency?](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688512ebb36df0118c636b77/)