Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's four-year cycle obsolete as institutional adoption, ETFs fuel 2026 surge

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycle, a long-standing framework for predicting market dynamics, is increasingly seen as obsolete, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. In a recent analysis, Hougan argued that Bitcoin’s trajectory is being reshaped by structural shifts such as institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and the rise of crypto ETFs. He forecasted a significant price upside for 2026, asserting that the “forces creating prior four-year cycles are weaker” and that the Bitcoin halving—once a predictable catalyst for volatility—now exerts diminishing influence [1][2].

Hougan’s prediction hinges on four key trends. First, the emergence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since 2024 has begun channeling institutional capital into Bitcoin. Second, broader institutional adoption is accelerating, with pension funds and endowments only starting to integrate crypto assets. Third, regulatory clarity from initiatives like the U.S. GENIUS Act is expected to create a stable framework for market growth. Fourth, Wall Street’s delayed embrace of crypto is poised to inject billions into the asset class as banks expand offerings [2][4]. These factors, he emphasized, “don’t synchronize with the four-year cycle,” signaling a departure from historical patterns [5].

The CIO’s forecast for 2026 is grounded in the convergence of these trends. By that year, Hougan predicts institutional infrastructure will be more robust, regulatory hurdles resolved, and ETF-driven demand sustained. This, he contends, will create a self-reinforcing cycle of adoption and liquidity that overshadows residual effects of the four-year pattern. “2026 will be a good year,” he stated, though he did not specify price targets [3].

Hougan’s analysis aligns with broader market observations. Recent price action has shown divergence from historical cycles. For instance, the 2024 halving occurred without a corresponding peak, as institutional investment and regulatory progress continued unabated [6]. While the four-year cycle “is dead” as a predictive model, Hougan acknowledged its historical significance but stressed its waning relevance as market fundamentals evolve. “Long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces,” he said [2].

The 2026 projection, however, remains speculative. Hougan’s forecast assumes current trajectories persist, though macroeconomic shifts, geopolitical risks, or regulatory reversals could alter outcomes. Critics like Rekt Capital have warned that Bitcoin may peak within months if it follows the 2020 pattern, with a potential peak in October 2025, 550 days post-halving [1]. Conversely, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted the four-year theory’s obsolescence, citing institutional adoption as a stronger driver [2].

Despite differing views, Hougan’s stance reflects a maturing market where institutional infrastructure and regulatory frameworks increasingly shape Bitcoin’s performance. “The market is maturing. The forces driving Bitcoin now are as much about institutional adoption as supply mechanics,” one observer noted [4]. While volatility remains a risk, Hougan emphasized a “sustained steady boom” over a sharp super-cycle, cautioning against overconfidence amid potential volatility [2].

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin 'up year' is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio)

[2] [Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/26/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-says-four-year-cycle-is-dead-predicts-2026-will-be-a-good-year-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-heres-why/)

[3] [Bitcoin's 4-Year Boom-Bust Cycle Loses Grip as ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-4-year-boom-bust-cycle-loses-grip-institutional-adoption-etfs-drive-2026-breakout-2507/)

[4] [Crypto market's four-year cycle is 'dead'](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-markets-four-year-cycle-is-dead-bitcoin-halving-losing-importance-bitwise-executive-202507252018)

[5] [Four-year Bitcoin cycles are dead](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/b31b8-four-year-bitcoin-cycles-are-dead-bitwise-cio-says)

[6] [Bitcoin's four-year cycle loses grip as maturing market ...](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics/)