Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Fades as Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Shifts Reshape Market Dynamics

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Sunday, Jul 27, 2025 7:23 am ET2min read
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Aime RobotAime Summary

- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan claims Bitcoin's four-year price cycle driven by halvings is fading due to institutional adoption and regulatory shifts.

- Halving impacts have weakened as Bitcoin's market cap grows, while easing interest rates now boost crypto prices unlike previous tightening cycles.

- Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the 2025 GENIUS Act regulatory framework are accelerating institutional capital inflows, reshaping market dynamics beyond retail-driven volatility.

- Emerging risks include unregulated crypto lending products, but 2026 could see sustained growth through ETF flows and corporate adoption despite persistent volatility.

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycle, historically driven by block reward halvings, is fading as institutional forces and regulatory shifts reshape market dynamics, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise. The predictable pattern of surges following halving events—where miner rewards are cut by 50% every four years—has weakened due to growing participation from corporations and Wall Street [1]. This transformation marks a maturation of the cryptocurrency market, where institutional demand now overshadows algorithmic supply shocks.

Hougan identifies three key drivers behind this shift. First, the halving’s impact diminishes with each cycle. While earlier halvings fueled sharp price increases (e.g., over 150% in 2016 and 2020), recent cycles saw gains under 50% during similar windows. With Bitcoin’s market cap now in the hundreds of billions, the same 50% supply cut has proportionally less influence [2]. Second, interest rates, once a drag on crypto, have become a tailwind. The 2018 and 2022 U.S. Federal Reserve tightening cycles coincided with

Bitcoin
drops of 72% and 69% from peaks. Today, easing or paused rates have crypto trading higher, signaling a shift in how the asset interacts with macroeconomic cycles [3].

Third, institutional adoption is accelerating. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, have attracted over $10 billion in net inflows, creating a steady capital flow unbound by the four-year cycle. Larger investors, including pensions and endowments, are now entering the space, though their timelines span years. When they commit, their billions could reshape markets beyond retail-driven volatility [4]. Regulatory clarity also plays a role. The GENIUS Act, passed in January 2025, established custody rules and licensing frameworks, enabling banks and asset managers to integrate crypto services. This legislation, Hougan argues, paves the way for billions in institutional capital to flow into the market within months [5].

Despite these positive trends, Hougan warns of new risks. The rise of Treasury firms offering short-term lending and yield products could introduce instability if unregulated growth outpaces oversight. This “wild card” differs from past cycles, where risks were tied to supply shocks or interest rates [6]. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets continues to evolve. Unlike previous cycles, it now rises with rate hikes—a sign of its growing acceptance as a strategic asset rather than a speculative one [7].

Looking ahead, Hougan anticipates 2026 as a pivotal year. Institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic alignment could drive Bitcoin higher, though he cautions against expecting a “supercycle.” Instead, a “stable, stable boom” is more likely, with volatility persisting due to the maturation of corporate Bitcoin treasuries and the need for regulatory adaptation [8]. This view aligns with industry sentiment, as figures like CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju have acknowledged the obsolescence of halving-driven cycle theories [9].

As Bitcoin’s market evolves, the interplay between institutional demand, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic trends is redefining its trajectory. Investors must now navigate a landscape where old metrics—like halving events—fade, and new drivers such as ETF flows and corporate adoption take center stage.

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin's New Clock: How Wall Street Killed The Old Cycle](https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoins-new-clock-how-wall-street-killed-the-old-cycle-according-to-expert/)

[2] [Bitcoin's four-year cycle loses grip as maturing market reshapes dynamics](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics/)

[3] [Four-year Bitcoin cycles are dead, Bitwise CIO says](https://coinpaper.com/10209/four-year-bitcoin-cycles-are-dead-bitwise-cio-says)

[4] [Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Dead: What’s Next for Cryptocurrency?](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-988765-20250726)

[5] [Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Dead: What’s Next for Cryptocurrency?](https://cryptorank.io/ru/news/feed/19e6b-bitcoin-s-four-year-cycle-is-dead-what-s-next-for-cryptocurrency)

[6] [Bitcoin's New Clock: How Wall Street Killed The Old Cycle](https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoins-new-clock-how-wall-street-killed-the-old-cycle-according-to-expert/)

[7] [Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Dead: What’s Next for Cryptocurrency?](https://cryptorank.io/ru/news/feed/19e6b-bitcoin-s-four-year-cycle-is-dead-what-s-next-for-cryptocurrency)

[8] [Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Dead: What’s Next for Cryptocurrency?](https://cryptorank.io/ru/news/feed/19e6b-bitcoin-s-four-year-cycle-is-dead-what-s-next-for-cryptocurrency)

[9] [Bitcoin's New Clock: How Wall Street Killed The Old Cycle](https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoins-new-clock-how-wall-street-killed-the-old-cycle-according-to-expert/)