Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Fades as ETFs and Institutional Demand Drive New Growth Paradigm

The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, historically linked to block reward halvings and associated price patterns, is losing relevance as market dynamics shift toward institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and ETF-driven growth, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise. Hougan’s analysis, shared in July 2025, underscores a transition from cyclical volatility to a sustained growth trajectory shaped by structural factors. He argues that forces previously tied to halving events—such as speculative demand shocks—have weakened, with institutional buying and corporate treasury allocations now playing a dominant role in driving BTC’s value [1].

Hougan highlighted key changes disrupting the old cycle framework. First, the once-significant “demand shocks” caused by halvings—events that historically reduced Bitcoin’s supply—have been replaced by steady, incremental purchases from institutions and corporations. This shift reflects a maturing market where demand is no longer driven by scarcity events but by long-term investment strategies. Second, regulatory improvements and industry institutionalization have reduced the risk of catastrophic collapses, creating a more stable environment for growth. Third, the rise of Bitcoin ETFs is accelerating capital inflows, with traditional financial players entering the space for the first time. “The new trend for the next 5–10 years is the influx of funds into BTC ETFs,” Hougan noted, adding that Wall Street’s participation, spurred by legislation like the GENIUS Act, will bring billions in investment over the coming years [1].

The evolving relationship between Bitcoin and macroeconomic factors further challenges the four-year cycle narrative. Unlike the negative correlations observed during the 2018 and 2022 Fed rate hikes, Hougan pointed to a growing positive correlation between Bitcoin’s performance and Federal Reserve policy. This suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a macroeconomic asset, aligning with traditional financial markets rather than operating in isolation [1].

Despite these positive trends, Hougan warned of a potential risk: the rapid accumulation of corporate Bitcoin treasuries. While this trend signals growing trust in the asset class, excessive corporate holdings could create imbalances in supply dynamics, potentially destabilizing the market. This caution underscores the need for balanced growth as institutional adoption accelerates [1].

Hougan’s perspective aligns with broader market observations. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju recently echoed similar sentiments, admitting that prior cycle-based forecasts were erroneous. This consensus reflects a broader industry acknowledgment that Bitcoin’s trajectory is being reshaped by fundamental developments rather than cyclical patterns [1].

Looking ahead, Hougan predicts a “stable, sustained boom” rather than the dramatic price swings of past cycles. While he described 2026 as a promising year, he emphasized that this optimism is rooted in structural forces—ETFs, institutional capital, and regulatory progress—rather than halving events. “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces,” he stated, signaling a paradigm shift in how Bitcoin’s value is understood and predicted [1].

Sources:

[1] [Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/26/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-says-four-year-cycle-is-dead-predicts-2026-will-be-a-good-year-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-heres-why/)

[2] [Bitcoin Year Cycle Theory Dead](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-year-cycle-theory-dead-institutional-adoption-154b-etfs-stabilize-market-2507/)

[3] [Bitwise CIO Declares End of Four-Year Crypto Cycle](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitwise-cio-declares-year-crypto-cycle-institutional-adoption-regulatory-clarity-2507/)