Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Faces Structural Challenges as Market Dynamics Evolve

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Monday, Aug 11, 2025 6:54 am ET2min read
BTC
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Aime RobotAime Summary

- Bitcoin's traditional four-year price pattern tied to halvings faces skepticism as market dynamics evolve, with analysts questioning its relevance amid structural shifts.

- Corporate holdings of nearly 1 million BTC and 95% of supply already mined reduce halving impact, as scarcity-driven demand gives way to institutional activity and macroeconomic factors.

- Analysts remain divided: some argue halvings still shape cycles through ETF alignment and political patterns, while others see prolonged bear risks and unpredictable price movements.

- Bullish forecasts predict $140K-$250K by 2025 driven by institutional adoption, but market complexity from whale behavior, regulation, and Fed policy makes predictions uncertain.

Bitcoin’s long-observed four-year price pattern—historically tied to halving events and resulting in sharp price surges followed by corrections—is being questioned as the market undergoes structural changes. The traditional view that halvings trigger bullish cycles has faced skepticism, with some analysts arguing that the framework may no longer be the dominant force driving Bitcoin’s price [1].

One key factor is the accumulation of massive corporate holdings. Author Jason Williams points out that the top 100 treasury companies hold close to one million BTC, meaning a large portion of the supply is now locked in balance sheets rather than circulating through exchanges. This shift in supply dynamics could mute the impact of halvings, as the traditional scarcity-driven demand is no longer the primary driver [1].

Pierre Rochard of The

Bitcoin
Bond Company argues that halvings are becoming increasingly immaterial. With 95% of Bitcoin’s supply already mined, the daily issuance of new coins has minimal influence on market float. Rochard notes that newly issued coins are now largely sold by long-term whale holders rather than miners, making price movements less predictable and less tied to halving events [2].

The rise of institutional demand and regulatory developments is also reshaping market behavior. Bitwise’s Matthew Hougan expects positive returns to continue into 2026, breaking the boom-and-bust pattern seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Similarly, Sygnum Bank’s Martin Burgherr says the halving date has become just one of several factors influencing traders, who now consider macroeconomic trends, regulatory shifts, and capital inflows from large investors [1].

Despite these changing dynamics, some analysts still believe the four-year cycle remains relevant. CRYPTO₿IRB insists that halvings are central to Bitcoin’s price action, noting that spot ETFs reinforce the cycle by aligning it more closely with four-year financial and political patterns. Xapo Bank’s Seamus Rocca also warns of the possibility of a prolonged bear market, suggesting that the cyclical model is still a relevant framework [1].

Looking ahead, bullish price forecasts continue to surface. Tom Lee, CIO of Fundstrat Capital, predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025, citing institutional adoption and the 2024 halving as key drivers. Other analysts forecast price targets ranging from $140,000 to $150,000 by late 2025, largely based on the expectation of continued institutional investment and broader acceptance of Bitcoin as a store of value [5][7].

The next 18 months will be a critical test of whether the four-year cycle has ended or is simply evolving. With Bitcoin approaching its all-time high, Peter Brandt, a well-known technical analyst, has warned that the next six weeks could determine its trajectory in 2025 [8]. Market watchers are also closely monitoring the upcoming US CPI data release, as it could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and, by extension, Bitcoin’s price movement [10].

As the debate continues, what is clear is that Bitcoin’s market is becoming more complex and less predictable. The confluence of institutional demand, whale activity, and regulatory developments is reshaping the way investors think about price trends. Whether 2025 will mark the end of the four-year pattern or a new phase in Bitcoin’s evolution remains to be seen.

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Source:

[1]title1: [Will 2025 Break Bitcoin's Famous Four-Year Price Pattern?](https://coindoo.com/will-2025-break-bitcoins-famous-four-year-price-pattern/)

[2]title2: [Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycles Are Over, Pierre Rochard Says](https://u.today/bitcoins-four-year-cycles-are-over-pierre-rochard-says)

[3]title3: [Bitcoin's usual four-year cycle may be ending as new ...](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1025357-20250809)

[4]title4: [Why Bitcoin Price Is Surging Today? Bulls Target $140K ...](https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/why-bitcoin-price-is-surging-today-bulls-target-140k-btc-as-crypto-rally-accelerates/)

[5]title5: [Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Could Hit $250K by 2025 ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-hit-250k-2025-institutional-adoption-halving-2508/)

[7]title7: [Eyes All-Time Highs Ahead of Tuesday US CPI Data Release](https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-eyes-all-time-highs-ahead-of-tuesday-us-cpi-data-release/)

[8]title8: [Peter Brandt Warns: Next 6 Weeks Could Decide Bitcoin's F](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/28097456001417)

[9]title9: [Institutional Bitcoin Holdings Jump 100% in 2025 as Price ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-institutional-bitcoin-holdings-jump-100-2025-price-surpasses-119000-2508/)

[10]title10: [Here's Why Crypto Is Going up Today and the Altcoins ...](https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/crypto-up-today-altcoins-doimnate-august/)