Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Faces a Rival: Institutions and Tariffs

Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains a subject of intense debate among analysts as the cryptocurrency balances between historical trends and emerging market dynamics. Data from analytics firm Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin's recent price movements align with the four-year halving cycle, despite increasing institutional adoption. Long-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days—are taking profits at levels comparable to past market peaks, indicating that the cycle may be further along than anticipated. However, Bitcoin ETF outflows of approximately $975 million over four trading days signal weakening demand and a shift toward riskier altcoin positions [1].

Historical patterns suggest that if Bitcoin follows its typical cycle, a peak could arrive as early as October 2024. Previous cycles from 2018 and 2022 saw peak highs occurring two to three months beyond their respective lows. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital projected in July that the 2024 peak could follow the 2020 pattern, with a peak in October—550 days after the April 2024 halving [1]. Frank Fetter from Vibe Capital Management noted that Bitcoin is currently around 1,000 days from its 2022 low, leaving room for further appreciation.

On the other hand, some analysts argue that the growing institutional involvement is altering the traditional cycle. According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET data, the top 100 public companies holding Bitcoin collectively possess nearly 1 million BTC, valued at $112.17 billion [1]. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan stated in July that the halving cycle “is dead,” and that Bitcoin’s performance could remain positive into 2026 due to changing market dynamics and favorable interest rate environments [1].

Institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs continues to grow. According to K33 data, institutional investors increased their Bitcoin ETF exposure by 64,983 BTC in Q2, pushing holdings to a record $33.6 billion. This accounts for roughly 24.96% of total assets under management in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Millennium and Jane Street emerging as the largest institutional owners [3]. While institutional ownership rose from Q1’s 21.92% to Q2’s 24.96%, it still fell short of the Q4 2024 peak of 25.38%.

Amid this backdrop, political and economic factors continue to influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. Some members of the Trump administration have invested in Bitcoin-related assets and firms impacted by U.S. trade policies. For instance, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick’s firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, invested $120.7 million in the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and $116.8 million in Robinhood [4]. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has highlighted the potential for tariffs to generate revenue, though trade groups warn of economic ripple effects, including increased costs for consumers and supply chain disruptions [4].

The U.S.-China trade tensions are also affecting Bitcoin mining operations, with tariffs on mining equipment imposing potential liabilities of $185 million on CleanSpark and $100 million on IREN [6]. Despite these challenges, some companies are adapting by diversifying supply chains and establishing production facilities in the U.S., including Chinese manufacturers like Bitmain and Canaan. The ongoing trade dynamics are reshaping the competitive landscape and forcing Bitcoin miners to become more sophisticated in their operations.

While the four-year cycle continues to be a focal point, the growing role of institutional investors and geopolitical factors may be redefining Bitcoin’s market behavior. Whether the cycle persists or evolves into a new pattern remains to be seen, but the interplay of historical trends and emerging forces will likely shape the next chapter in Bitcoin’s journey [1].

Source:

[1] Is Bitcoin's Famous Four-Year Cycle Finally Broken? What To Expect In Q4 (https://coincentral.com/is-bitcoins-famous-four-year-cycle-finally-broken-what-to-expect-in-q4)

[2] Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Still Intact Despite Predictions - Glassnode Reports (https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-four-year-cycle-still-intact-despite-predictions-glassnode-reports)

[3] Institutional Bitcoin ETF holdings rise by 64,983 BTC to $33.6 billion (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/institutional-bitcoin-etf-holdings-rise-112428058.html)

[4] Trump Officials Trade Bitcoin Funds on Tariff News (https://cointelegraph.com/news/howard-lutnick-buys-bitcoin-amid-tariffs)

[5] Here's the secret Powell, Trump and Bessent aren't telling ... (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-secret-powell-trump-and-bessent-arent-telling-us-about-gold-and-bitcoin-762e33f6)

[6] US-China Trade War Hits Bitcoin Miners With Tariffs (https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-china-trade-war-bitcoin-mining-tariffs)