Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Faces Debate as Market Dynamics Shift

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Monday, Aug 11, 2025 2:18 am ET1min read
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Aime RobotAime Summary

- Experts debate Bitcoin's four-year cycle relevance amid evolving market dynamics and post-halving price patterns.

- Analysts like Jason Williams and Matthew Hougan argue the cycle is fading due to treasury concentration and shifting supply dynamics.

- Institutional adoption, macro trends, and ETFs are increasingly cited as new drivers overshadowing traditional cyclical patterns.

- Contrarians like CRYPTO₿IRB insist the cycle remains mathematically embedded in Bitcoin's code despite 2025 peak delays.

- Market uncertainty persists as liquidity shifts and technical indicators gain prominence over historical halving correlations.

Experts are divided on whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle is still relevant. The cycle, historically linked to Bitcoin’s halving events and resulting in price peaks in the years following, appears to be under increasing scrutiny as market dynamics evolve. Jason Williams, an author and investor, argues the cycle is over, citing the concentration of

Bitcoin
in the top 100 treasury companies as evidence of a structural shift [1]. Matthew Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, similarly suggested the cycle is likely over, though he emphasized confirmation would come with positive returns in 2026 [1].

The historical pattern saw Bitcoin reach its peak price in the year after each halving, in 2013, 2017, and 2021. However, the expected peak in 2025 has yet to materialize in a way that aligns with previous cycles. This has led to speculation that the cycle is adapting, rather than disappearing. Pierre Rochard of The Bitcoin Bond Company noted that the influence of halvings is diminishing as most Bitcoin has already been mined, with new supply coming mainly from existing holders [1].

Martin Burgherr of Sygnum Bank added that while the four-year cycle remains a reference point, it is no longer the primary driver of market behavior. He pointed to macroeconomic trends, institutional capital inflows, regulatory changes, and ETF adoption as increasingly significant factors [1]. Harry Collins, lead of the Bluefin community, still predicts a bull market top in October 2025, but such projections remain speculative [1].

On the other hand, some analysts argue the cycle is far from over. CRYPTO₿IRB, a prominent crypto analyst, stated that the cycle is mathematically embedded in Bitcoin’s code and that ETFs have actually reinforced it by aligning it with traditional financial cycles. Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, echoed this view, cautioning against dismissing the four-year cycle as dead [1].

The debate reflects a broader transformation in the crypto market. The rise of institutional investors, including hedge funds and corporate treasuries, has brought new liquidity and volatility, altering traditional price patterns. As a result, technical indicators and macroeconomic factors are gaining more attention among traders and analysts [1].

While the discussion continues, the coming months may provide clearer evidence of whether the four-year cycle is evolving or fading into history.