Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Ends as Institutions, ETFs, Regulation Drive 2026 Surge

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycle—long seen as a predictable rhythm for market booms and corrections—may no longer dominate its trajectory, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management. In a July 2025 analysis, Hougan argued that structural shifts in institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and product innovation are reshaping Bitcoin’s future, positioning 2026 as a pivotal year [1].

The Bitcoin halving, a historically significant event that reduces block rewards and theoretically drives scarcity-driven price surges, has seen its influence wane, Hougan noted. He explained that the halving’s impact has diminished by half every four years, suggesting its role as a catalyst will fade further as the market evolves [2]. Instead, he emphasized four non-cyclical forces: institutional adoption, regulatory advancements, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and Wall Street’s integration of crypto assets. These factors, Hougan argued, operate on multi-year timelines rather than the four-year rhythm previously observed [3].

Regulatory clarity, Hougan highlighted, has reduced uncertainty in the market. The passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025, for example, provided a clearer legal framework for crypto firms, encouraging institutional participation [4]. Meanwhile, ETFs—gaining traction in 2024—have become a cornerstone of mainstream adoption, with pension funds and endowments incorporating them into long-term portfolios [5]. Institutional adoption, he noted, is expanding beyond ETFs, with custodial services and trading platforms tailored for institutional clients accelerating capital flows into crypto [6].

Hougan also pointed to Wall Street’s growing embrace of crypto as a transformative force. The GENIUS Act, he said, has enabled banks and brokerages to offer crypto services without regulatory ambiguity, fostering infrastructure investments that could redefine market dynamics [7]. “These pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the traditional four-year cycle framework,” Hougan stated, forecasting 2026 as a turning point driven by sustained demand rather than halving-induced volatility [8].

The 2024 halving in April, Hougan argued, marked the end of the old cycle. With institutional flows, regulatory momentum, and product innovation now driving price action, the market’s focus has shifted from short-term cycles to long-term fundamentals [9]. This shift, he suggested, signals a maturing market where Bitcoin’s value is increasingly tied to institutional participation and infrastructure development rather than scarcity-based speculation.

While some analysts remain skeptical, Hougan’s outlook aligns with broader industry trends. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently echoed the sentiment, stating the four-year cycle theory is outdated, as institutional whales now dominate accumulation patterns [1]. However, not all experts agree. Analyst Rekt Capital warned that Bitcoin may still follow historical patterns, with a potential peak in October 2025—550 days after the 2024 halving—mirroring the 2020 cycle [9].

Hougan, however, remains bullish on 2026, forecasting a “sustained steady boom” rather than a volatile supercycle. He acknowledged the possibility of short-term volatility but emphasized that regulatory progress and institutional adoption have reduced “blow-up risk,” making the market less susceptible to sharp corrections [1].

Source: [1] [Bitcoin 'up year' is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio)

[2] [Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/26/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-says-four-year-cycle-is-dead-predicts-2026-will-be-a-good-year-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-heres-why/)

[3] [Bitcoin's 4-Year Boom-Bust Cycle Loses Grip as ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-4-year-boom-bust-cycle-loses-grip-institutional-adoption-etfs-drive-2026-breakout-2507/)

[4] [Crypto market's four-year cycle is 'dead'](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-markets-four-year-cycle-is-dead-bitcoin-halving-losing-importance-bitwise-executive-202507252018)

[5] [Four-year Bitcoin cycles are dead](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/b31b8-four-year-bitcoin-cycles-are-dead-bitwise-cio-says)

[6] [Bitwise CIO declares the crypto cycle dead—institutions](https://crypto.news/bitwise-cio-says-four-year-crypto-cycle-over-heres-why/)

[7] [Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Adoption and ETFs ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-institutional-adoption-etfs-reshape-crypto-market-dynamics-2026-2507/)

[8] [Bitcoin's four-year cycle loses grip as maturing market ...](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics/)

[9] [Bitwise CIO Declares Crypto Four‑Year Cycle Dead](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/bitwise-cio-declares-crypto-four%E2%80%91year-cycle-dead-predicts-steady-and-sustained-boom-from-2026/)