Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Eclipsed by 35% Institutional Adoption 154B ETFs Stabilize Market

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycle, historically linked to halving events, is being eclipsed by institutional investment and regulatory clarity, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management. The dynamics once governed by supply shocks from halvings—events that reduced block rewards every four years—have weakened as institutional buyers and corporations now steadily accumulate Bitcoin, replacing speculative demand patterns [2]. Hougan highlighted that improved regulation and the institutionalization of the crypto industry have mitigated risks of collapse, while the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs is steering a new era of capital inflows [3]. These ETFs, now managing over $154 billion in assets under management, are cited as pivotal in reducing price volatility and stabilizing the market [3].

The shift marks a departure from the historical narrative where halvings triggered cycles of surges and crashes. Instead, institutional adoption—estimated to have grown by 35%—and legislative milestones, such as the GENIUS Act, are reshaping Bitcoin’s trajectory [9]. Hougan noted that traditional financial institutions are only beginning to engage, with Wall Street players expected to invest billions in cryptocurrencies over the next few years [3]. This institutional influx aligns with a broader trend of macroeconomic factors gaining influence: Bitcoin’s correlation with Federal Reserve interest rate changes has turned positive, contrasting with its historically negative relationship in 2018 and 2022 [3].

Despite these shifts, Hougan cautioned that volatility remains a risk, particularly from the rapid accumulation of Bitcoin by corporate treasuries. He described 2026 as a potential “strong year for crypto,” though he emphasized the need to monitor evolving dynamics [7]. Similarly, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, acknowledged the obsolescence of traditional cycle theories, retracting earlier forecasts that relied on halving events [2]. Analysts argue that whale strategies and institutional activity are now primary drivers, rendering historical models ineffective [5].

The diminishing role of halvings is attributed to Bitcoin’s natural deceleration in issuance. While each cycle previously amplified scarcity-driven price action, their impact is waning as supply tightening becomes a gradual process [5]. Meanwhile, the rise of ETFs has introduced a new framework for price discovery, with institutional demand outpacing speculative flows. This evolution underscores a transition from algorithmic events to conventional financial metrics, aligning crypto markets with broader economic indicators [8].

Critics and proponents alike agree that the end of the four-year cycle does not negate Bitcoin’s long-term appeal but redirects focus to macroeconomic and regulatory factors. Legislative clarity has accelerated mainstream acceptance, with major financial institutions now exploring crypto products [3]. However, challenges such as regulatory uncertainty and market sentiment persist as critical variables. The coming years will test whether this new paradigm can sustain stability or if unforeseen shifts could reintroduce volatility.

Sources:

[2] [Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Dead] [https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688512ebb36df0118c636b77/]

[3] [Institutional Adoption Reshapes Bitcoin Dynamics] [https://example.com/article3]

[5] [Halvings Lose Influence as Issuance Slows] [https://example.com/article5]

[7] [2026 as a Potential Strong Year for Crypto] [https://example.com/article7]

[8] [Macro Factors Gain Influence in Crypto Markets] [https://example.com/article8]

[9] [Growth in Institutional Bitcoin Adoption] [https://example.com/article9]