Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Debate: Is the Clock Still Ticking?

Bitcoin's price has remained resilient above $122,000 despite ongoing selling pressure, sparking renewed debate among analysts about the relevance of its traditional four-year cycle. Recent analysis suggests that accommodative monetary policies and institutional adoption are reshaping Bitcoin's trajectory, challenging historical patterns tied to halving events. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom, argues that the four-year cycle is obsolete, attributing past bear markets to monetary tightening rather than halving mechanics. "The four-year cycle is dead," Hayes wrote in an essay, emphasizing that global liquidity and central bank policies-rather than supply-side events-now drive Bitcoin's performance .

The traditional four-year cycle, which historically saw Bitcoin surge post-halving followed by a 16–18 month bear market, is under scrutiny. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, raising concerns about a potential peak. However, Hayes and others point to supportive monetary conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and Japan's stimulus-driven Abenomics strategy, as factors that could prolong the bull market. The Fed's projected 100 basis point rate reductions over the next 12 months and China's focus on ending deflation further reinforce this view .

Technical analysts, meanwhile, highlight potential reversal patterns. John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility metric, noted a "classic W-bottom" forming near $80,000, suggesting a long-term floor for Bitcoin. This pattern, characterized by two distinct troughs, requires confirmation through a breakout above $90,000 to validate a bullish reversal . Similarly, Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, posited that Bitcoin could surge to $185,000 if the four-year cycle holds, citing historical symmetry between the November 2022 low and the April 2024 halving .

Conflicting forecasts underscore market uncertainty. While Hayes and Brandt advocate for higher targets, some analysts warn of a potential correction. Brandt also identified bearish chart patterns, such as an inverted expanding triangle, suggesting a test of support near $46,000 . Arthur Hayes, in a separate commentary, explicitly shorted Bitcoin, targeting a dip below $50,000 amid ETF outflows and weak economic data . These divergent views reflect broader volatility, with on-chain metrics showing reduced exchange balances and increased active addresses, indicating shifting investor behavior .

The debate extends to regulatory and institutional influences. Matt Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management argued that regulatory clarity and rising institutional adoption could stabilize Bitcoin's price, reducing reliance on speculative cycles . This aligns with broader trends, including ETF inflows and corporate treasury adoption, which analysts say could bolster long-term demand. However, the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic data-such as U.S. non-farm payroll reports-remains a wildcard, as seen in recent ETF outflows totaling $536 million .

In summary, Bitcoin's current resilience above $122,000 reflects a complex interplay of monetary policy, technical indicators, and institutional dynamics. While the four-year cycle's relevance is contested, the consensus highlights the growing influence of central bank actions and liquidity conditions. As the market navigates conflicting signals, investors remain cautious, balancing optimism about prolonged bull trends with risks of short-term corrections.

Source: [1] CoinDesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/09/bitcoin-crash-off-the-table-as-four-year-cycle-is-dead-arthur-hayes)

[2] Coinwy (https://coinwy.com/bitcoin-four-year-cycle-2025-debate/)

[4] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bollinger-band-creator-bitcoin-forming-classic-floor-below-80k)

[8] Inside Bitcoins (https://insidebitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-peter-brandt-says-btc-could-explode-to-185000-if-it-doesnt-top-out-this-week)

[9] BeInCrypto (https://beincrypto.com/arthur-hayes-peter-brandt-bitcoin-target/)