Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Dead as ETFs and Institutional Buyers Stabilize Prices

The traditional boom-bust cycles that once defined Bitcoin’s price action may be fading, as institutional adoption and exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows reshape market dynamics. Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s pre-ETF volatility—marked by sharp bull runs and crashes—has given way to a more stable, long-term trajectory. This shift reflects a structural transition toward institutional accumulation, with ETFs and corporate treasuries now holding significant BTC positions. For instance, BlackRock’s ownership of roughly 3% of all Bitcoin raises concerns about centralization and liquidity risks [1].

Bitcoin’s market personality has effectively split into pre-ETF and post-ETF eras. Prior to ETFs, retail-driven speculation fueled dramatic price swings, but this has been replaced by a “pump and consolidate” rhythm. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas notes that reduced volatility is attracting institutional investors, though it may signal the end of explosive “God Candles” seen in past cycles [2]. The CryptoQuant CEO, Ki Young Ju, declared the “death” of Bitcoin’s classic four-year cycle theory, emphasizing that institutional players now prioritize strategic accumulation over speculative trading. Unlike previous cycles, where retail buyers dominated, current on-chain data reveals that corporate treasuries have purchased twice as much BTC as retail investors in the first half of 2025 [3].

This institutionalization has broader implications for the crypto market. With more capital flowing into custodial financial products rather than direct BTC ownership, traditional finance is gaining a firmer grip on crypto markets. This trend could stifle capital rotation into altcoins and reduce on-chain activity, even as ETF inflows exceed $50 billion [4]. Bitwise Asset Management’s CIO, Matt Hougan, confirmed the four-year cycle is “dead,” attributing this to sustained institutional demand and the waning influence of social media hype and leveraged retail positions [5]. Analyst Burakkesmeci highlighted the contrast to 2021’s frenzy, noting the current phase is characterized by disciplined, data-driven accumulation rather than mass euphoria [6].

However, the shift also introduces new risks. Historically, retail panic and social media sentiment served as clear signals for market tops. Now, institutions operate on longer time horizons, making downturns harder to predict. Ki Young Ju warned that a negative institutional shift could trigger sharper, less detectable bear markets [7]. Meanwhile, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that long-term accumulation strategies now dominate, signaling a maturing market [8]. While Bitcoin briefly touched all-time highs in early July, the broader altcoin market remains subdued, underscoring Bitcoin’s singular role as a store of value [9].

The ETF-driven era appears to have ushered in a new paradigm, where price stability and institutional strategy replace cyclical hype. Whether this marks the end of Bitcoin’s boom-bust pattern or a recalibration remains to be seen, but the market’s structural shift is undeniable.

Source:

[1] [title: Bitcoin’s ETF Era May Have Killed the Hype Cycles for Good] [url: https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6885ebb804724b2d1e08a978/]

[2] [title: Bitcoin News Today: Bitwise CIO Declares Four-Year ...] [url: https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitwise-cio-declares-year-crypto-cycle-dead-2026-etfs-institutions-drive-growth-2507/]

[3] [title: Crypto's Golden Rule Just Got Broken, According To Analyst] [url: https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-987816-20250725]

[4] [title: Bitwise CIO Declares “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Dead”] [url: https://cryptonews.com/news/bitwise-cio-declares-four-year-crypto-cycle-is-dead-is-a-steady-record-breaking-boom-next/]

[5] [title: The Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead, CryptoQuant's Ki Young ...] [url: https://www.livebitcoinnews.com/112968-2-bitcoin/]

[6] [title: The Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead, CryptoQuant's Ki Young ...] [url: https://www.livebitcoinnews.com/112968-2-bitcoin/]

[7] [title: The Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead, CryptoQuant's Ki Young ...] [url: https://www.livebitcoinnews.com/112968-2-bitcoin/]

[8] [title: The Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead, CryptoQuant's Ki Young ...] [url: https://www.livebitcoinnews.com/112968-2-bitcoin/]

[9] [title: The Crypto Bullcycle That Never Happened - X] [url: https://x.com/Lions_Share_/status/1948699979133919639]