Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Dead as 2026 Breakout Year Predicted by Bitwise CIO

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycle, once a defining feature of its market behavior, is increasingly seen as obsolete, with 2026 positioned as a potential breakout year, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of crypto asset manager Bitwise. Hougan’s analysis challenges the historical narrative tied to Bitcoin’s halving events and retail-driven volatility, arguing that structural factors such as institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and macroeconomic conditions are now more influential in shaping long-term trends [1].

The four-year cycle, historically marked by price peaks coinciding with Bitcoin halvings—events that reduce miner block rewards every 210,000 blocks—has lost relevance, Hougan noted. He attributed this shift to the halving’s diminishing impact, which becomes “half as important” every four years. Instead, Bitcoin’s trajectory is now driven by institutional-grade infrastructure, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and a broader acceptance of crypto as a legitimate asset class. Hougan emphasized that the 2024 approval of Bitcoin ETFs created a new on-ramp for mainstream capital, decoupling price movements from cyclical patterns [2].

Regulatory clarity and macroeconomic tailwinds further bolster this outlook. Hougan pointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts—pressured by President Donald Trump—as a bullish catalyst, as lower interest rates reduce the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets. Additionally, the passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025, a bipartisan crypto innovation bill, has accelerated institutional participation, with pensions and endowments increasingly allocating to Bitcoin [3]. These developments, Hougan argued, operate on a longer timeframe than the four-year cycle, creating a sustained demand environment.

The death of the four-year cycle is also evident in evolving market dynamics. Institutional adoption, once speculative, is now characterized by long-term asset allocation. Hougan highlighted that “old whales” in the crypto market are selling to newer institutional buyers, signaling a maturing ecosystem. This shift contrasts with previous cycles, where retail frenzy often preceded sharp corrections [4]. However, risks remain, particularly from Bitcoin treasury companies—entities accumulating Bitcoin by issuing debt or new stock—which could face solvency issues if prices drop sharply [5].

While Hougan predicts a “sustained steady boom” rather than a rapid super-cycle, he acknowledged short-term volatility is inevitable. His forecast aligns with other analysts, such as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who also declared the four-year cycle obsolete. Yet, not all experts agree. Analyst Rekt Capital warns that historical patterns from 2020 suggest a potential peak in October 2025, 550 days after the April 2024 halving. This divergence underscores the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory [6].

The implications of a post-four-year cycle market are profound. A more stable, fundamentals-driven framework could align Bitcoin with traditional asset classes, reducing volatility and attracting long-term investors. However, Hougan cautioned that regulatory and institutional challenges—such as ensuring infrastructure keeps pace with demand—remain critical risks. For now, the crypto market appears poised for a new era, where Bitcoin’s value is increasingly tied to macroeconomic and institutional forces rather than the predictability of supply adjustments [7].

Source: [1] [Bitcoin 'up year' is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio)

[2] [Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/26/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-says-four-year-cycle-is-dead-predicts-2026-will-be-a-good-year-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-heres-why/)

[3] [Bitcoin's 4-Year Boom-Bust Cycle Loses Grip as ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-4-year-boom-bust-cycle-loses-grip-institutional-adoption-etfs-drive-2026-breakout-2507/)

[4] [Four-year Bitcoin cycles are dead, Bitwise CIO says](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/b31b8-four-year-bitcoin-cycles-are-dead-bitwise-cio-says)

[5] [Bitwise CIO Declares the Crypto Cycle Dead—institutions](https://crypto.news/bitwise-cio-says-four-year-crypto-cycle-over-heres-why/)

[6] [Crypto market's four-year cycle is 'dead,' Bitcoin halving ...](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-markets-four-year-cycle-is-dead-bitcoin-halving-losing-importance-bitwise-executive-202507252018)

[7] [Bitwise CIO Declares Crypto Four‑Year Cycle Dead](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/bitwise-cio-declares-crypto-four%E2%80%91year-cycle-dead-predicts-steady-and-sustained-boom-from-2026/)