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Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent rally experienced a temporary pause as prices dipped by 4% from their all-time highs, a common occurrence during bull markets. This pullback has sparked interest in on-chain signals, which suggest a potential market pivot as whales become more active and dormant supply begins to circulate again in July.
CryptoQuant's latest analysis revealed that Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) surged to 28 million this week, indicating that older, previously inactive Bitcoin is now being transferred. Historically, this pattern has been associated with large holders repositioning near cycle midpoints or local tops. Additionally, Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) spiked above $4 billion in realized profits, the highest since early Q2. This trend reflects significant profit-taking by whales and recent buyers while Bitcoin’s price hovers around $117,000-$120,000. The price action amid heavy realized profits suggests either resilient underlying demand or a delayed reaction.
This wave contrasts with late June, when NRPL data showed realized losses and modest profits, hinting at capitulation by late entrants while long-term holders accumulated quietly. The current environment flips this narrative: profits now dominate while older coins flow into the market, aligning with Q3’s institutional rebalancing phase. This indicates that these movements are strategic rather than random.
Simultaneous spikes in NRPL and CDD have historically preceded periods of volatility, including local tops, consolidations, or mid-cycle pauses. This suggests that whales and large players are coordinating their activity. Whether this leads to further distribution or an extended rally will depend on follow-through in the coming weeks. For now, whales are active, profits are being locked in, and dormant supply is re-entering circulation, potentially signaling a hidden inflection point beneath the surface of stable Bitcoin price action.
With whales active and dormant coins re-entering circulation, attention is focused on Bitcoin’s key levels. The recent rally to $124K and the subsequent correction have turned this level into a local top. Bitcoin has pulled back after hitting $123,000, aligning with the +1 standard deviation of the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price. Resistance now sits at $124K and $136K, with the latter representing the +1 STD of holders with coins less than one month old, often linked with overbought conditions.
On the downside, $113K, aligning with the +0.5 STD above the STH Realized Price, is emerging as a support during consolidations. Meanwhile, $111K is the average cost basis for new entrants, creating a psychological floor if it corrects further. The most critical level remains $101K, the baseline STH Realized Price, which historically signals medium-term bullish structure and strongholder conviction if the crypto remains above it.
Bitcoin whales, entities holding large amounts of the cryptocurrency, have recently broken their silence, sparking speculation about a potential mid-cycle pivot in the market. These whales have been notably active, moving significant amounts of Bitcoin (BTC) and locking in profits estimated to be around $4 billion. This activity has drawn attention to the possibility of a shift in the market's trajectory, as whales are often seen as influential players capable of driving market trends.
The movement of these dormant BTC holdings suggests a strategic maneuver by whales to capitalize on current market conditions. By locking in profits, they are likely positioning themselves for future gains or hedging against potential downturns. This behavior is indicative of a calculated approach, where whales are not only securing their current earnings but also preparing for the next phase of the market cycle.
The implications of this activity are multifaceted. On one hand, it could signal a bullish sentiment, as whales are often seen as having a long-term perspective on the market. Their actions might be interpreted as a vote of confidence in Bitcoin's future performance. On the other hand, the locking in of profits could also be a sign of caution, with whales taking steps to protect their investments in the face of potential market volatility.
According to analysts' forecasts, Bitcoin's price is projected to experience significant fluctuations between 2025 and 2030, influenced by institutional investment and broader market trends. However, it is important to note that these forecasts are speculative and based on various assumptions about future market conditions. The actual performance of Bitcoin will depend on a range of factors, including regulatory developments, technological advancements, and global economic conditions.

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