Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Whales May Be Engineering a Price Correction

Bitcoin’s recent price movements have raised concerns about its ability to maintain prices above $100,000, with market sentiment shifting in favor of a potential drop. According to predictions on Polymarket, traders now assign a 61% probability to Bitcoin falling below the $100,000 threshold before the end of 2026, a decline from the 72% probability noted earlier in the week when the cryptocurrency dipped under $110,000 [1]. This downward shift in betting odds reflects a broader loss of confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to sustain six-figure values amid increased selling pressure from large holders. The cryptocurrency last traded below $100,000 in June 2024.

Market analysts have highlighted the role of large sell-offs by whale accounts and long-term holders in contributing to this downward trend. Presto Research analyst Min Jung noted that while buy-side demand has so far absorbed some of the increased supply, more aggressive unwinding of holdings by major players could test critical market support levels. One such example involved a large transaction where 22,400 Bitcoin were exchanged for Ethereum, exacerbating downward pressure on Bitcoin’s value. These actions underscore the significant influence that concentrated positions can have on price volatility.

Despite the recent sell-offs, demand for Bitcoin remains robust in certain segments. Corporate treasuries and institutional allocators continue to absorb supply, with Metaplanet planning to deploy $837 million into Bitcoin acquisitions through October [1]. This trend suggests that while short-term pressures persist, long-term demand from institutional buyers remains a stabilizing force. Strategy firms have also been active in accumulating Bitcoin, with recent purchases exceeding 3,000 Bitcoin. Corporate treasury holdings now total around 632,000 Bitcoin, indicating sustained interest despite price fluctuations.

However, the market is not without risks. K33 Research has noted that leverage buildup in the derivatives market poses additional downside risks. Open interest in perpetual futures has reached a two-year high of over 310,000 Bitcoin, with funding rates surging from 3% to nearly 11%. These metrics suggest aggressive long positioning, which could lead to cascading liquidations if prices continue to fall. Similar leverage conditions in 2023 and 2024 were followed by sharp corrections, raising concerns about potential instability in the near term.

The ongoing corrections in Bitcoin’s price could serve a redistribution function, moving supply from large holders to broader retail and institutional investors. 21Shares’ David Hernandez has characterized these sell-offs as a sign of market maturation, suggesting that such events may ultimately strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals by increasing its distribution and reducing concentration among whales. Whether this holds true, however, will depend on the ability of new market participants to absorb the increased selling pressure without exacerbating the downward trend.

Source: [1] Bitcoin Likely To Drop Below $100K This Year (https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-likely-to-drop-below-dollar100k-this-year)