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Recent on-chain data highlights a shift in
market behavior, with short-term holders offloading positions at a loss while large investors, known as whales, continue to accumulate. As Bitcoin fell below $111,000, retail traders—particularly those who had held their positions for one to six months—began selling at an average loss of 3.5%, contributing to institutional outflows of around $1 billion [1]. This capitulation by short-term investors is part of a recurring pattern observed in previous market cycles, including in 2018 and 2022, when whale activity surged amid corrections [2].At the same time, long-term whale investors are buying in during this period of market consolidation. On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates that holders with large Bitcoin balances (10 to 10,000 BTC) have accumulated 81,338 BTC over the past six weeks [3]. This accumulation aligns with historical trends, where whales increase their positions during market downturns while retail participation wanes [4]. The absence of significant retail activity at current price levels—$80,000 to $100,000—suggests that the market is being driven by more strategic, long-term buyers rather than speculative short-term traders [5].
The current price environment reflects a classic market transition phase, where weaker hands exit while stronger hands take advantage of lower entry points. This dynamic was previously seen in 2020 and late 2023, where mixed activity between retail and institutional buyers marked a period of redistribution [6]. Now, with whale activity dominating the $80K–$100K range, the market may be setting the stage for a more stable price structure [7].
Corporate adoption continues to support whale accumulation, with firms like
, Metaplanet, and increasing their Bitcoin holdings. This institutional interest, coupled with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year, has changed the overall market structure [8]. These developments reinforce the idea that the current market strength is being driven by larger, more methodical participants rather than retail-driven euphoria [9].Despite whale accumulation, Bitcoin remains under pressure as ETF inflows have slowed, and bearish sentiment has pushed the price to a recent low near $111,500. Analysts suggest that the market is now testing crucial support levels, particularly around $105,000, which could determine the next phase of Bitcoin’s price trajectory [10]. If short-term holders continue to offload and ETF outflows persist, further downward movement is possible in the near term [11].
The market appears to be in a consolidation phase, with whale activity signaling confidence amid retail uncertainty. While
has seen a rise in attention from capital rotation, the immediate focus remains on Bitcoin’s ability to stabilize and hold key levels. The pattern of whale accumulation during retail capitulation has historically been a precursor to price stabilization, according to ETHNews [12].Source:
[1] Bitcoin Plunges Below $110K: Is This the Start of a Deeper ... (https://fin.co.id/2025/08/26/bitcoin-plunges-below-110k-is-this-the-start-of-a-deeper-correction)
[2] Whale Activity During Bear Markets (2018, 2022) (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68addfd04d4cc92881e169fc/)
[10] Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bulls and Bears Battle at $112500 (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitocin-price-forecast-bulls-and-bears-battle-at-112k-usd)
[11] Bitcoin Price Drops to $112K — Here's the Last Stop ... (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bitcoin-btc-price-drops-to-112k-here-s-the-last-stop-before-the-next-bull-run/ar-AA1L1EMp?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds)

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