Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Whales' $10B Gains Test Market's Absorption Capacity

Bitcoin's short-term holder (STH) whales have accumulated $10.1 billion in unrealized profits, a cycle high, as the cryptocurrency's price surged to record levels, according to on-chain analytics. This development has sparked speculation about potential profit-taking and its impact on market volatility. STHs, defined as entities holding 1,000+ BTC acquired within 155 days, have seen their gains expand sharply following recent price rallies, with the Unrealized P&L metric hitting $10.1 billion as of late SeptemberBitcoin STH Whale Profits Hit $10.1 Billion, Highest For The^[1]. The spike reflects Bitcoin's all-time high price of $124,600, which has pushed nearly all STHs into profit, barring those who purchased at peak levelsBitcoin Whales Sit on $10.1B Gains, Market Volatility Looms^[2].

The behavior of these whales, often labeled "weak hands" due to their sensitivity to volatility, could influence near-term price action. Historical patterns suggest that large unrealized gains among STHs often precede profit-taking, which could trigger temporary sell-offs if demand fails to absorb the increased supplyBitcoin’s failure to hold above $120,000 was accompanied by a surge in selling from large holders^[3]. However, analysts note that the current rally has also drawn significant institutional participation. For instance, Strategy, a major Bitcoin holder, recently halted further acquisitions after realizing $9.7 billion in profits through a multi-tranche sale executed via Galaxy DigitalBitcoin price confirms whale profit surge: 117K: Whales profit, rally …^[4]. This move highlights a broader trend of early whale wallets reallocating assets, with over 500,000 BTC (worth $50 billion) sold by longtime holders in the past yearBitcoin LTH Profitability Outpaces STHs: BTC Targets $120k^[5].

The shift in ownership dynamics is reshaping Bitcoin's market structure. Institutional buyers, including ETFs and corporations, have absorbed nearly 900,000 BTC since early 2025, with listed firms now holding 4% of the total supplyBitcoin’s Founding Whales Are Handing the Baton to …^[6]. This transition has coincided with a decline in volatility, as the Deribit BTC Volatility Index reached a two-year low in AugustBitcoin LTH Profitability Outpaces STHs: Is A New Bullish Phase …^[7]. Meanwhile, the influx of institutional capital has reinforced Bitcoin's resilience, with STH whales' profitability indicating sustained demand despite periodic corrections.

Long-term holders (LTHs) are also regaining dominance in the market. The LTH/STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has climbed to a balanced but upward-trending level, signaling a potential structural shift toward a new bull phaseBitcoin LTH Profitability Outpaces STHs: Are you about to start a ...^[8]. Analysts attribute this to stronger institutional accumulation, with the Coinbase Premium-reflecting U.S. institutional demand-remaining positive since AprilWho really controls Bitcoin’s price in 2025? Whales, devs or ...^[9]. However, the market remains sensitive to external factors, including regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions. For example, a sudden drop in the LTH/STH SOPR ratio below key levels could foreshadow a correction, potentially testing support around $100,000Bitcoin’s Bullish Phase: Key Metrics and Institutional Dynamics^[10].

Bitcoin's price trajectory is further complicated by the interplay between old and new whale activity. While early whale wallets have consolidated for the long term, newer large holders-likely hedge funds or high-net-worth individuals-have taken $3.2 billion in profits since early 2025Bitcoin Holders Shifting: What’s Next for BTC? - CCN.com^[11]. This bifurcation suggests divergent strategies among major players, with some prioritizing liquidity and others adopting a longer-term outlook. The market's ability to absorb large-scale sales, as demonstrated by the recent $9.7 billion liquidation by Strategy, underscores the depth of institutional demandUnderstanding the Bitcoin Whale Phenomenon in 2025^[12].

In summary, Bitcoin's current phase is characterized by a mix of record STH profits, institutional accumulation, and strategic profit-taking by whales. While the $10.1 billion in STH gains and $9.7 billion in realized profits by Strategy highlight the asset's bullish momentum, the potential for volatility remains tied to market absorption capacity and external shocks. Investors are advised to monitor on-chain metrics like SOPR and trading volume to gauge the sustainability of the rally and anticipate potential corrections.