Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's "Weak Hands" Exit as Market Consolidates for a Stronger Base

Bitcoin's recent pullback has triggered a wave of selling among new investors, many of whom are locking in losses as the market undergoes a period of consolidation. On-chain data reveals that investors who have held Bitcoin for less than a month are averaging an unrealized loss of approximately -3.5%, leading to increased selling pressure. Analyst CrazzyBlockk described this as a “classic capitulation” driven by fear among newer traders, a phenomenon commonly observed during market corrections [2].

At the same time, seasoned investors—particularly short-term holders (STHs) who have held Bitcoin for one to six months—continue to remain profitable. The STH cohort is currently sitting on an aggregate unrealized gain of +4.5%, indicating that the broader market remains resilient despite recent volatility. CrazzyBlockk emphasized that this shift in ownership dynamics is a “bullish structural development,” as it signifies that weaker investors are being flushed out of the market, transferring their holdings to more committed buyers [1]. This consolidation is seen as a foundational step in building a stronger support base for future price appreciation.

The recent decline has also led to the liquidation of over $70 million in leveraged long positions, particularly after Bitcoin dipped below $111,000 on Binance. This triggered a sharp drop in open interest (OI) and a significant plunge in cumulative net taker volume by approximately $1 billion, underscoring the aggressive sell-side dominance during the correction. Analyst Amr Taha noted that the absence of a short squeeze suggests latent upside potential, especially if Bitcoin reclaims key levels like the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $108,000 [1]. This level has historically acted as a dynamic support during bull market rallies and is seen as a critical benchmark for near-term recovery.

Looking at the broader picture, the current price action does not yet exhibit the classic signs of a bull market top. Most of the 30 widely tracked peak indicators for Bitcoin remain neutral. For instance, the Puell Multiple—used to measure miner revenue in relation to price—currently stands at 1.39, well below the 2.2 level historically associated with overbought conditions. Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s price to its net unrealized value, remains in neutral territory rather than at extreme levels that have traditionally preceded market tops [1].

The upcoming support levels are expected to play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s immediate direction. A rebound above the $117,000–$118,000 cluster could serve as a price magnet if the asset regains upward momentum in the coming days. Conversely, a breakdown below the 20-week EMA could lead to a deeper correction toward the 50-week EMA near $95,300, which has historically served as a local bottom during prior bull market pullbacks [1].

While the short-term market dynamics appear bearish, the long-term fundamentals remain intact. Bitcoin’s inelastic supply and increasing institutional demand are expected to drive sustained growth over the next decade. Bitwise, a major player in the crypto asset management space, recently forecasted a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.3% for Bitcoin through 2035, projecting a price of $1.3 million. This forecast is based on the growing role of Bitcoin in institutional portfolios, where it is increasingly viewed as a core asset alongside traditional investments like equities, bonds, and gold [3].

Source:

[1] Was $124K the top? Bitcoin's price peak signals tell a (https://cointelegraph.com/news/was-124k-the-top-bitcoin-price-peak-signals-different-story)

[2] Analyst: Bitcoin Market Sheds "Weak Hands" (https://forklog.com/en/analyst-bitcoin-market-sheds-weak-hands/)

[3] Bitcoin To Hit $1.3 Million By 2035, Bitwise Forecasts (https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/08/47317346/bitcoin-to-hit-1-3-million-by-2035-bitwise-forecasts)