Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Waning Grip Sparks Altcoin Hopes

Bitcoin's market dominance, a key metric for gauging its relative strength against altcoins, has recently shown signs of a pullback, raising speculation about the potential for a broader market shift. As of late September 2025, Bitcoin held a 56.3% share of the total crypto market cap, according to Coingecko, while Coinbase reported a slight uptick to 60.21% as of September 30. However, technical indicators suggest weakening momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the monthly timeframe has registered a bearish crossover, echoing patterns observed during previous altcoin-driven cycles, such as the 2021 rally. Additionally, Bitcoin dominance has slipped near the 60% threshold, with analysts noting a potential decline toward 45% support levels, a move that historically correlates with increased altcoin activity.

The pullback in Bitcoin dominance is attributed to evolving market dynamics. Institutional demand, fueled by spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, has bolstered Bitcoin's short-term resilience. For instance, U.S.-listed spot ETFs recorded $429.96 million in inflows on September 30, per SoSoValue data. However, this influx has also intensified Bitcoin's dominance, potentially deterring capital rotation into altcoins. Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors, including the U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions, have driven risk-on sentiment, with Bitcoin acting as a hedge against fiat inflation.

Historical patterns suggest that a sustained drop in Bitcoin dominance could signal an "altcoin season," characterized by broad-based altcoin rallies. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index, which tracks the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over 90 days, currently stands at 43 out of 100CMC Altcoin Season Index^[1]. This score, while below the 75 threshold for a full altcoin season, indicates growing interest in alternative cryptocurrencies. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has seen its market cap reach $4.476 billion, capturing 13.7% of the marketAltcoin Statistics (2025) – Usage, Volume & Market Insights^[2]. Analysts note that altcoin dominance often surges when Bitcoin's share dips below 50%, as seen during the May 2021 bull run when top altcoins collectively hit 130% of Bitcoin's market capCMC Altcoin Season Index^[1].

Market participants are closely monitoring technical levels. Bitcoin's price has rebounded above the 50-day EMA at $113,403, with bulls targeting $116,000 as the next resistance. However, a breakdown below the 50-day EMA could trigger a pullback toward $107,245. The 50-week moving average also serves as a critical trendline; a sustained breach below this level could signal deeper capitulation in Bitcoin's dominance.

Looking ahead, forecasts for Bitcoin's price trajectory remain mixed. While some analysts, like Timothy Peterson, predict a 70% probability of Bitcoin closing 2025 above $173,000, others caution against immediate bullish moves. Santiment, a sentiment analytics platform, advises caution, noting that average active wallet growth and a "Fear" reading on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (45) suggest caution for near-term buyers. Meanwhile, Derive's options data indicates a 42% chance of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by year-end.

For altcoins, the potential for a rally hinges on Bitcoin's performance. If dominance declines further, capital flows may shift toward high-cap altcoins like Ethereum or emerging sectors such as AI-driven tokens. However, institutional adoption of altcoin ETFs, such as the recently launched XRP ETF, could also fuel niche sectors. The broader market's ability to sustain momentum will depend on regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, and the interplay between Bitcoin's dominance and altcoin narratives.