Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Volatility Squeeze: November's High-Stakes $100k Showdown

Bitcoin faces a critical juncture as November 2025 unfolds, with the cryptocurrency's price action tightening into a volatility squeeze that could trigger a dramatic breakout or breakdown. Traders and analysts are closely watching whether Bitcoin (BTC) will surge above $112,000 or collapse below the $100,000 psychological threshold, a level last tested in late June, as reported in a Yahoo report. The current consolidation phase, marked by historically low volatility on weekly Bollinger Bandwidth indicators, mirrors patterns preceding major price moves in the past, according to a Coinpedia analysis.

Bitcoin's recent slide below $100,000 followed a 6% drop on Nov. 4, exacerbating a 20% correction from its October peak near $124,500, the Yahoo report noted. Over $1.3 billion in crypto liquidations were recorded in 24 hours, with Bitcoin accounting for $445 million of the losses. The selloff coincided with a broader risk-off market sentiment, fueled by U.S. Supreme Court hearings on tariff enforcement and concerns over an imminent 10% equity market correction. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown—now in its 35th day—has compounded pressure on risk assets, with the dollar index climbing above 100 for the first time since August, as a CoinDesk report noted.

Institutional players are signaling caution. Galaxy Digital, a major crypto firm, slashed its 2025 end-of-year price target for Bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000, citing challenges in institutional absorption, leveraged liquidations, and long-term holder distributions, according to a Coinotag report. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's research head, attributed the downward revision to "whale distribution, non-BTC investments, and treasury company malaise," while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook, as covered in a Decrypt article. The firm noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1 billion in outflows over five consecutive days, reflecting shifting capital toward AI infrastructure and gold, the Coinotag report added.

Technical indicators add to the uncertainty. Bollinger Bands have compressed to their tightest levels in over a year, with the BBW indicator near the 15-level threshold—a historical precursor to explosive price movements, a pattern Coinpedia highlighted. Matthew Hyland, a market commentator, highlighted that monthly Bollinger Bands have reached "the most extreme levels in Bitcoin's entire history," suggesting heightened volatility is imminent, in a Cointelegraph article. On-chain data also shows Bitcoin trading near $101,000, supported by easing U.S.-China trade tensions but undermined by fading institutional demand, according to an FXStreet analysis.

November's significance looms large. Historically, the month has averaged a 42.5% gain for Bitcoin since 2013, Cointelegraph reported. Analysts point to technical setups, including moving average crossovers and lunar cycles, as potential catalysts for a mid-November reversal, according to a BeInCrypto analysis. However, geopolitical risks and regulatory scrutiny—particularly in Australia and South Korea—could prolong volatility, according to a Yahoo analysis. JPMorgan still forecasts a $165,000 target for 2025, contingent on sustained ETF inflows and Fed policy easing, the Yahoo analysis added.

With Bitcoin teetering at a crossroads, the coming weeks will test the resilience of its three-year bull market. A breakout above $112,000 could reignite optimism, while a sustained drop below $100,000 may signal deeper corrections. As Galaxy's Thorn noted, "the long-term future is still bullish—but it might take longer than expected."