Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Volatility Jumps as Bearish Signals Clash with Institutional Optimism

Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands Signal Record Volatility After 3.7% October Drop

Bitcoin's price volatility surged to 54% in late October as the cryptocurrency traded below its weekly Bollinger Bands midband of $113,744, triggering bearish technical signals and raising concerns about a potential drop toward the $103,000 support level, according to a Coinotag report. The move follows a 3.7% decline in October, with traders and analysts closely monitoring key thresholds amid a backdrop of Federal Reserve policy shifts and liquidity-driven market dynamics.

The Fed's 25-basis-point rate cut, announced on October 30, exacerbated volatility as leveraged positions across crypto markets faced liquidation risks. In the hour preceding the announcement, roughly $100 million in crypto positions were wiped out, with $55 million tied to Bitcoin alone, according to a Yahoo Finance report. This defensive positioning by traders underscored the asset's sensitivity to macroeconomic signals, particularly as Bitcoin remains below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $108,000, a Coinotag analysis found.

Technical indicators highlight a critical juncture for Bitcoin. TradingView data shows the price at $112,498, below the midband and aligned with the lower Bollinger Band at $103,752—a level coinciding with October's sharp decline, the Coinotag report noted. Analysts warn that a sustained break below this band could trigger a cascade of short liquidations and push prices toward $95,000, based on Fibonacci retracement levels from recent highs. Meanwhile, liquidity clusters around $117,000 and $111,000 suggest a high-stakes battleground for buyers and sellers, with exchange heatmaps indicating concentrated positions that could amplify volatility, according to the Coinotag analysis.

Despite the bearish setup, some optimism persists. Bitcoin reclaimed the 200-day EMA in late October after a 12% rebound from mid-month lows, a move historically associated with bullish momentum, a Coinpedia forecast noted. ETF inflows have also returned, signaling renewed institutional interest. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, remains bullish, predicting Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by year-end and $1 million within eight years, citing growing adoption by traditional financial institutions, according to an InvestorEmpires report.

However, caution dominates in the near term. On-chain data reveals moderate trading volumes, insufficient to reverse the series of lower highs observed this month, the Coinotag report said. CryptoQuant's Axel noted that while the overall bullish structure remains intact, the market is in a "pre-breakout accumulation stage," with Bitcoin still above the seven-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) support level, according to a Lookonchain analysis.

The path forward hinges on November catalysts, including potential Fed rate cuts, ETF flow updates, and geopolitical developments. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $113,744, it could attract fresh buyers and restore confidence. A failure to hold the lower band, however, may invite aggressive shorting, with options data from Deribit showing increased put activity around key strikes, the Coinotag report added.