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Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to its lowest level in two years, according to a recent analysis from CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr. Adler noted that the 30-day high-low price indicator has shown a significant compression, reflecting a narrowing gap between the highest and lowest prices in the last 30 days. This compression typically indicates a balanced supply and demand dynamic, with liquidity concentrated at key price levels—above $120,000 and below $113,000. Adler emphasized that this setup increases the likelihood of a price breakout [1].
The market has responded with a sustained rally since early August, with
climbing nearly 9% and nearing its all-time high of $123,217.39. This upward momentum has coincided with a weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI reading of 2.7%, which came in below the 2.8% forecasted by traders. The subdued inflation data has helped ease concerns over aggressive monetary tightening and reinforced bullish sentiment in the market [1].Technical indicators also suggest a potential breakout. A bull flag pattern has formed on Bitcoin’s price chart, and analysts are watching for a decisive break above this pattern, which could push prices toward $141,000. Another analyst, Gert Van Lagen, has proposed a more ambitious long-term target of $370,000, based on a step-like formation on the chart. However, he warned that a sustained drop below $94,000 would invalidate the bullish case [10].
The broader crypto market has also shown signs of strength. Altcoin open interest has surged to a record $47 billion in August 2025, with
and outperforming Bitcoin in recent weeks. The probability of Solana hitting a new all-time high has risen from 30% to 50% in just one week, signaling a growing shift in market dynamics [2].Despite the positive developments, risks remain. A stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI reading could trigger a sell-off, potentially driving Bitcoin below $95,000 as investors reassess risk exposure. Analysts have also identified $115,000 as a near-term support level where Bitcoin could find temporary stability in the event of a pullback [10].
The current environment of low volatility, strong on-chain activity, and rising altcoin open interest suggests the market is in a transitional phase. As Bitcoin’s dominance wanes and altcoins gain traction, the broader crypto ecosystem appears to be repositioning itself ahead of a potential broader market rally, provided macroeconomic conditions remain favorable [6].
Source: [1] Bitcoin Realized P&L Ratio Signals Sustainable Rally (https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:b03f9fde8094b:0-bitcoin-realized-p-l-ratio-signals-sustainable-rally-reversal-risk-remains-low/)
[2] Bitcoin News Today: Altcoin Open Interest Hits Record $47 Billion (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-altcoin-open-interest-hits-record-47-billion-retail-interest-surges-2508/)
[6] Altcoins Open Interest Surges to New All-Time High Amid... (https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1034269-20250813)
[10] Bitcoin Price Forecast as Markets Brace For US CPI (https://coingape.com/markets/bitcoin-price-forecast-as-markets-brace-for-us-cpi-94000-or-141000-next/)
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