Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Volatility Dips to 70% as U.S.-EU Trade Deal Spurs Stability

Bitcoin’s quarterly realized volatility has dipped to 70%, nearing the historical low of 62% recorded on September 23, 2023, when Bitcoin traded at $26,000. This marks a stark departure from the 143% volatility peak observed earlier in the current cycle, reflecting a broader shift in market dynamics. The decline underscores a period of unusual stability, with analysts noting that Bitcoin’s price movements have become less erratic compared to past bull cycles, which saw volatility surge as high as 236% [1]. The maturation of the asset class, driven by growing institutional participation and a focus on long-term value, is increasingly evident [2].

The subdued volatility has been attributed to a confluence of factors, including macroeconomic stability and strategic developments such as the U.S.-EU trade agreement, which delayed tariffs on China and unlocked $600 billion in EU investments. This deal has bolstered risk-on sentiment across global asset classes, including cryptocurrencies [3]. Additionally, the 4.5% annual increase in U.S. M2 liquidity has provided further support, reinforcing optimism about Bitcoin’s role as a store of value. A major bank has even suggested that Bitcoin may be entering an era of diminished price swings, a shift that could attract risk-averse investors and redefine its volatility profile [4].

Despite the calm, market participants remain cautious. Historical patterns indicate that periods of low volatility often precede significant price movements, either upward or downward. On-chain analysts highlight that Bitcoin’s current phase resembles consolidation ahead of a potential breakout, with key price levels around $116,800–$118,300 identified as critical for the next phase of momentum [5]. While the cryptocurrency briefly approached $120,000 in July 2025, sustained gains will depend on liquidity conditions and the presence of stablecoin reserves. The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR), which tracks the proportion of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin’s price, has risen alongside the rally, raising concerns about the availability of funds to fuel further gains [6].

The market’s balance of long and short positions also suggests a temporary equilibrium, with no clear dominance from either side. This equilibrium could signal a consolidation phase, as seen in previous cycles, before a decisive price move emerges [7]. Traders are closely monitoring macroeconomic catalysts, including the Federal Reserve’s rate decision week and broader data releases, which could tip the scales. Meanwhile, institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs and political pressures on U.S. monetary policy remain pivotal variables.

The implications of this volatility contraction extend beyond price action. For short-term traders, the reduced volatility may limit opportunities for quick profits, but it also reflects a market maturing into a more institutionalized and stable asset class. As Bitcoin’s volatility continues to align with historical lows, the focus shifts to whether this calm will persist or serve as a prelude to a significant re-rating. While predictions vary, the consensus leans toward renewed momentum, albeit with caution about the historically weaker returns typically seen in August [8]. For now, the trajectory of Bitcoin hinges on maintaining macroeconomic clarity, liquidity stability, and continued institutional adoption.

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin Volatility Close to Record Low, Next Move Awaits] [https://coinpedia.org/crypto-live-news/bitcoin-volatility-close-to-record-low-next-move-awaits/]

[2] [Bitcoin Volatility Near Record Low 70% as U.S.-EU Trade Deal Bolsters 1T Market Cap] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-volatility-record-70-eu-trade-deal-bolsters-1t-market-cap-2507/]

[3] [The ‘Biggest Trade Deal Ever’ — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week] [https://cointelegraph.com/news/biggest-trade-deal-ever-5-things-bitcoin-this-week]

[4] [Major Bank Thinks Bitcoin Is Going To Get Less Volatile] [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/major-bank-thinks-bitcoin-going-get-less-volatile-it-time-invest]

[5] [Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $120K Amid Volatility While XRP and Litecoin Hint at Explosive Rallies] [https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/07/28/daily-crypto-signals-bitcoin-eyes-120k-amid-volatility-while-xrp-and-litecoin-hint-at-explosive-rallies/]

[6] [Bitcoin Nears $120K as Analysis Predicts ‘Larger Price Swings’ Next] [https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-nears-120k-as-analysis-predicts-larger-price-swings-next]

[7] [The ‘Biggest Trade Deal Ever’ — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week] [https://cointelegraph.com/news/biggest-trade-deal-ever-5-things-bitcoin-this-week]

[8] [The ‘Biggest Trade Deal Ever’ — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week] [https://cointelegraph.com/news/biggest-trade-deal-ever-5-things-bitcoin-this-week]