Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Volatility at 39% Amid Inflation Concerns and Policy Shifts

The crypto market is currently experiencing a phase of structural oscillation, driven by high volatility, policy changes, and macroeconomic factors. As of July 17, 2025, the implied volatility (IV) of Bitcoin options is maintained at 38-39%, reflecting the market's heightened sensitivity to inflation concerns, delayed interest rate cuts, and legislative progress. Short-term funds are adopting defensive strategies in response to these uncertainties.

Institutional investors are increasingly taking neutral or directional positions on regulated platforms, as indicated by the rising open interest in CME Bitcoin futures. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin is in a phase where long-term holders are taking profits, which may exert short-term correction pressure. However, the overall capital structure remains stable, supporting a medium to long-term bullish outlook.

On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book suggests that inflation may accelerate by late summer, leading to a reduction in the probability of a September rate cut to around 60%. Despite a decline in June PPI and moderate core PCE, year-on-year CPI remains elevated at 2.7%, indicating sustained inflationary pressures. This scenario could prompt the Fed to delay its easing process, potentially enhancing the dollar's attractiveness and causing periodic capital outflows from the crypto market.

Legislative developments in the US, such as the proposed 'CLARITY Act' and 'GENIUS Act', have bolstered market confidence, briefly pushing Bitcoin to $123,000. However, these bills have not yet been formally passed. From an options market and volatility structure perspective, the current environment is characterized by a "policy uncertainty risk pricing period," with a rising volatility premium, particularly for contracts expiring around July 25. Investors are employing straddle or protective strategies to mitigate high-position volatility risks.

On-chain data further supports the fundamental aspects of a medium-term bull market, as institutional wallets and ETF-related addresses continue to see net inflows. This influx of capital, despite some long-term holders realizing profits, underscores the resilience and potential for sustained growth in the crypto market.