Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Uptrend Led by Whales as Retail Participation Wanes

On-chain analysis conducted by market intelligence firm CryptoQuant has identified a divergence in Bitcoin’s recent price dynamics, with institutional and large-scale investors—often referred to as “whales”—emerging as the primary drivers of the asset’s ascent. The firm’s findings contrast sharply with historical trends, where retail participation typically marked the final stages of bullish cycles. Current data indicates a subdued role for individual investors, while strategic accumulation by larger entities underscores a more calculated market trajectory.

CryptoQuant’s assessment highlights a notable shift in investor behavior since early 2023. Retail Bitcoin holders have been net sellers, with their holdings declining steadily over the past year. This trend diverges from previous bull cycles, where retail frenzies and social media-driven hype often coincided with price peaks. In contrast, institutional players, high-volume wallets, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have aggressively accumulated Bitcoin since early 2024. The firm notes that this pattern has persisted even as Bitcoin approached $123,000, with larger investors maintaining dominance despite recent consolidation below $120,000 [1].

Supporting this analysis, Google Trends data reveals muted interest in Bitcoin searches, a metric historically tied to retail engagement. While search volumes are not at a five-year low, they remain significantly below levels observed during prior bull runs, such as late 2020 and early 2021. CryptoQuant attributes this to the absence of widespread fear of missing out (FOMO) and limited social media discourse, suggesting the retail market remains unactivated. The firm emphasized that “this cycle looks nothing like the madness of 2021,” with “quiet and smart money currently on stage” [1].

Further evidence of whale activity includes the activation of a long-dormant Bitcoin address containing 3,962 BTC (valued at approximately $468 million) in July 2025. The movement of such a large holding from an account inactive for 14.5 years signals potential capital reallocation, a common indicator of whale-led market cycles [3]. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s Whale Exchange Ratio—tracking whale transactions involving exchanges—stands at 0.42, suggesting heightened engagement from large holders. Analyst Burak Kesmeci noted that such activity often precedes further price momentum, as whales adjust positions to influence market dynamics [1].

Retail participation, however, is not entirely absent. Binance Square reported a surge in Bitcoin’s open interest—a measure of leveraged trading positions—which analysts attribute to increased retail activity. While this data indicates retail demand, it does not negate whale-driven trends. Open interest metrics primarily reflect leveraged positions, which can be held by both individual and institutional traders, operating in distinct market segments [7].

The interplay between these forces creates a nuanced market environment. On-chain data suggests that whales set the broader directional trend, while retail activity contributes to short-term volatility. For instance, a temporary uptick in coins being moved to exchanges—often linked to profit-taking—was observed recently. However, analysts caution that such movements are typically transient and do not signal a reversal in the overall bullish trajectory [6].

Macroeconomic factors also play a role. Bitcoin’s inclusion in diversified portfolios as an inflation hedge has boosted demand across investor categories. Yet, recent declines in U.S. and Korean investor activity—key retail markets—highlight shifting sentiment. Regulatory uncertainties and market corrections may further dampen retail enthusiasm, leaving whales as the more consistent source of upward momentum [10].

Analysts emphasize the limitations of relying on any single metric. While whale movements can indicate sustained trends, retail-driven volatility introduces unpredictability, particularly as leverage ratios and trading volumes fluctuate. The current rally appears to reflect a hybrid model: whales establish the foundation for upward movement, while retail activity amplifies short-term swings [1].

Sources:

[1] [Retail Investors Are Not the Main Drivers of This Bitcoin Rally](https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604878495)

[3] [21Shares and Société Générale Enhance ETP Liquidity](https://m.economictimes.com/crypto-news-today-live-24-jul-2025/liveblog/122865756.cms)

[6] [Bitcoin faces profit-taking, but 4 reasons why BTC's rally isn't over yet](https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-faces-profit-taking-but-4-reasons-why-btcs-rally-isnt-over-yet/)

[7] [Top Bitcoin News News Today | Binance Square](https://www.binance.com/en/square/news/bitcoin-news)

[10] [Warning Signs Despite Bitcoin ETF Flows: BTC Demand](https://bitzuma.com/news/bitcoin-etf-flows-demand-warning/)