Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Undervalued Safe Haven: JPMorgan's $170K Case

JPMorgan Chase analysts argue that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued relative to gold, estimating its fair value at $170,000 within six to 12 months. The bank's strategy team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, bases this projection on a risk-adjusted comparison to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. According to their model, Bitcoin's market capitalization would need to grow by two-thirds-from its current $2.1 trillion to match gold's $6.2 trillion in private investment-to reflect its volatility-adjusted exposure. This analysis suggests Bitcoin is approximately $68,000 below its theoretical fair value as of late 2025, according to Coindesk's analysis.

The analysts attribute Bitcoin's recent price correction-a 20% drop from its October peak-to deleveraging in perpetual futures markets and a $120 million exploit in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector.

However, they note that open interest ratios in Bitcoin futures have normalized to historical levels, signaling the end of the deleveraging phase and setting the stage for a potential rebound, as CoinMarketCap reported. The report also highlights that Bitcoin's volatility relative to gold has fallen below 2.0, meaning it now requires 1.8 times more risk capital than gold, further supporting its discounted valuation, Coindesk noted.

JPMorgan's bullish outlook aligns with broader market trends. On-chain data indicates renewed demand for Bitcoin as traders "buy the dip," with Bitcoin addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 coins purchasing 10,000 BTC in a 24-hour period. Additionally, the bank points to improving macroeconomic conditions, including stabilizing ETF flows and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, as tailwinds for the cryptocurrency, Coinpedia wrote.

The analysis comes amid heightened scrutiny of JPMorgan's broader business operations. The bank recently faced regulatory inquiries over its "debanking" policies, as U.S. authorities review whether institutions have disproportionately cut ties with industries like firearms. Separately, JPMorgan received a credit rating upgrade from Moody's, citing its "superior financial performance" and strong risk management, according to a Bitcoin.com post. However, these developments are unrelated to the cryptocurrency analysis.

Bitcoin's recent volatility has also exposed vulnerabilities in the DeFi ecosystem. A $116 million exploit at Balancer, a decentralized exchange, underscored the risks of unregulated smart contracts. A TradingView piece reported attackers used Tornado Cash to obscure the origin of funds, highlighting the growing sophistication of crypto heists. While JPMorgan did not directly address DeFi risks in its Bitcoin report, an Invezz investigation reinforced the need for robust governance and real-time monitoring in digital asset markets.

The bank's $170,000 price target represents a sharp departure from Bitcoin's current level of around $102,000 but aligns with its historical valuation relative to gold. Panigirtzoglou emphasized that the recent selloff has created an "oversold" scenario, with Bitcoin's open interest ratio stabilizing near 2024 averages. This suggests sustained institutional interest despite short-term turbulence, as the Bitcoin.com post noted earlier.