Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Trapped in $81K–$93K Range as Liquidity Woes and Macro Uncertainty Weigh

Bitcoin stands at a crucial juncture in late 2025, as it faces a critical price battle between key resistance levels and signs of potential rebound. With the price consolidating in the $81,000 to $93,000 range, investors and analysts are keenly watching whether the asset can break through its current range-bound state. Meanwhile, the market remains influenced by structural liquidity challenges and deepening uncertainty around macroeconomic catalysts.

The recent launch of the Bitcoin Munari project on December 28 has added momentum to the broader crypto ecosystem, signaling a shift from speculative trading to active network participation according to reports. Validator participation and staking structures are gaining traction, offering new ways for BTCM holders to engage with the network beyond traditional trading.

Despite the bullish narrative surrounding new projects and ETF inflows, Bitcoin's order book liquidity remains fragile. Exchange reserves have hit record lows, while inter-exchange flows have weakened, creating a thin but volatile trading environment. This dynamic has resulted in choppy price action, with large orders capable of triggering sharp swings.

Why the Standoff Happened

Bitcoin's structural stagnation is rooted in a combination of liquidity constraints and macroeconomic uncertainty. While spot exchange depth has recovered to pre-FTX levels, the distribution of liquidity across platforms is uneven, with Binance dominating the market. This concentration increases the vulnerability of the price to large single-venue flows, such as ETF redemptions or macroeconomic-driven selling according to market analysis.

The situation is further complicated by a massive "underwater" supply wall between $93,000 and $120,000. Over 6.7 million BTC is currently trading at a loss, with short-term holders locked in by their cost basis around $101,500. This supply wall suppresses price volatility and keeps Bitcoin trapped in a defined range. The December 2025 options expiry has also contributed to this dynamic, with heavy gamma positioning pinning the price until the contracts roll off.

Meanwhile, perpetual futures open interest has dropped nearly 50% since late October, indicating a reset in market positioning. Funding rates remain near neutral, suggesting traders are no longer aggressively leaning long or short. This neutral stance reflects a broader de-risking in the market rather than a buildup for a directional move according to market data.

What Analysts Are Watching

Market watchers are closely monitoring several key indicators to gauge Bitcoin's next move. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has predicted a potential rally to $200,000 in 2026, fueled by the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) being interpreted as a form of quantitative easing. While the Fed has denied this classification, Hayes argues that the market's perception will drive the next wave of liquidity and price appreciation according to his analysis.

On the bearish side, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has warned that Bitcoin could still fall to $56,000 if the market enters a bear phase. The firm notes that demand growth for BTC has slowed significantly, with much of the cycle's incremental demand already realized. A drop in exchange reserves and weak inter-exchange flows could exacerbate this risk, particularly if macroeconomic conditions worsen according to market signals.

Another focal point is the role of ETF flows in shaping Bitcoin's price action. US spot ETFs have drawn in over $57.5 billion in net inflows since their launch, but their impact on price has been inconsistent. Daily flows have shown significant volatility, often reversing within hours due to macroeconomic signals rather than crypto-native fundamentals according to market data.

Investors are also keeping an eye on broader market developments, including the Fed's upcoming CPI report and the possibility of rate cuts in early 2026. The USD remains range-bound ahead of this data, with analysts suggesting that the outcome of the November CPI report could significantly shift expectations for the dollar and, by extension, Bitcoin.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite the optimism surrounding Bitcoin's long-term potential, several risks could delay or derail a breakout. The most immediate threat is Bitcoin's structural liquidity challenges. Thin order books and fragmented market depth mean even moderate-sized trades can cause sharp price swings. This fragility could be exacerbated if major ETF redemptions or macroeconomic shocks trigger simultaneous selling pressure according to market analysis.

Regulatory uncertainty also remains a wildcard. While Bitcoin Munari's launch has demonstrated innovation in staking and validator participation, the broader crypto industry still faces evolving legal and compliance standards. Any policy shift in key markets like the U.S. or EU could impact institutional participation and investor sentiment according to industry reports.

Lastly, the transition of companies like Core Scientific and BitFuFu from mining to AI infrastructure poses execution risks. These firms are exploring new revenue streams, but their success will depend on their ability to scale operations and navigate technological challenges. If these transitions falter, it could impact Bitcoin's long-term supply dynamics and profitability in the mining sector according to industry analysis.

For investors, the current environment demands a balanced approach. While Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong-with ETF inflows, low exchange reserves, and growing institutional adoption-the structural liquidity issues suggest caution. Positioning for a breakout requires careful timing, as the market remains sensitive to macroeconomic signals and large capital flows according to market analysis.

Investors with a long-term outlook might consider participation in projects like Bitcoin Munari, which are offering diversified staking and validator paths. These models are designed to align incentives between token holders and validators, potentially reinforcing network security while offering passive income streams according to project reports.

However, those with a shorter time horizon should be wary of the bearish risks highlighted by analysts. A pullback to $70,000 or even $56,000 is not out of the question, particularly if macroeconomic conditions worsen or demand growth continues to decline according to market analysis. Diversification and active risk management will be key in navigating the volatile near-term environment.