Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Traders Weigh AI-Driven Odds of Santa Rally as Year-End Nears

Bitcoin hovers just below $90,000 as the calendar turns toward year-end, raising the question of whether a Santa Rally-characterized by a late-December price rebound-can still materialize in 2025. Three major artificial intelligence (AI) models-ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini-have analyzed the situation, offering a range of predictions. While 2025 has been a volatile year for the cryptocurrency, with sharp highs and lows, the models remain divided on whether a rally is in the cards. The odds range from a cautious 30% to a more optimistic 55%, depending on the model and assumptions.

The Santa Rally concept, borrowed from equities, refers to the potential for price gains in the final days of December and the first trading sessions of January. For Bitcoin, this period is marked by thin liquidity and positioning that can amplify price swings in either direction.

The models agree that 2025 has been a rollercoaster year for the digital asset, but they differ on whether a late-season bounce is plausible.

Gemini estimates a 55% chance of a Santa Rally, defining it as a breakout above $95,000 with upside targets extending into the low six figures. The model cites renewed spot ETF inflows, extreme fear sentiment, and improving macroeconomic expectations as potential catalysts. In contrast, Grok assigns a lower probability of 30% to 40%, emphasizing compressed volatility, ETF outflows, and a lingering double-digit drawdown from October's peak. It views the current stabilization as consolidation rather than a bullish turn. ChatGPT offers a middle-ground estimate of 45%, suggesting a modest rally is plausible but not guaranteed according to analysis.

What Analysts Are Watching

Market analysts are closely monitoring a few key factors that could determine the outcome of the Santa Rally. One is the role of thin holiday liquidity, which has historically amplified price movements during this period. Another is the impact of macroeconomic conditions, such as interest rate expectations and inflation trends. Additionally, the behavior of derivatives markets-particularly the dominance of short liquidations-has been flagged as a potential driver of upward pressure.

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's regime score currently sits in the upper neutral zone, a historically bullish signal. The long/short liquidation dominance oscillator has also shown a recent surge in forced short closures, which could provide a tactical advantage for buyers. However, the market remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic shifts and derivatives positioning. If the bulls manage to hold Bitcoin above $84,000, the next target could be $100,000 or higher according to forecasts.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite the potential for a modest rally, several risks remain on the table. One is technical resistance-Bitcoin has yet to break through key levels that could confirm a sustained bullish trend. Another is tax-related selling, which often occurs as investors lock in gains before year-end. Furthermore, the market is still digesting the autumn drawdowns and may require more time to stabilize before a meaningful move higher can occur.

Grok's analysis highlights a lack of clear catalysts, such as policy shifts or sustained institutional buying, as a limiting factor. The model also notes that historical December gains for Bitcoin have been mixed, especially outside of strong bull phases. ETF outflows and cautious derivatives positioning reinforce the idea that the market is not yet primed for a dramatic move according to the model.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, the current uncertainty means a cautious approach is warranted. While a Santa Rally is possible, it is not a certainty, and the models suggest it would likely take the form of a modest lift rather than a dramatic price surge. Bulls can point to improving sentiment and renewed ETF demand as positives, but bears counter with unresolved technical resistance and ongoing macroeconomic pressures.

The average of the three AI forecasts lands near the middle: a Santa Rally is possible, but far from guaranteed. If it does materialize, it's more likely to resemble a modest holiday lift than a fireworks display. For now, traders are advised to manage risk carefully and watch for key levels, such as $95,000 and $100,000, which could signal the next phase in Bitcoin's price action according to market analysis.